401
FXUS61 KLWX 102003
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL KICK NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SET
TO PUSH THROUGH. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY WINDS, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER SERIES OF FRONTS SET TO CROSS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN THE RECENT DROUGHT CONCERNS. SO FAR MANY
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 HAVE RECEIVED 0.25-0.50" OF
RAINFALL. 0.50- 0.75" OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I- 66/US-50. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN MD AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA ARE CLOSING IN ON 1" OF RAIN WITH ANOTHER 2-5
HOURS WORTH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
ROANOKE RIVER AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY (AS OF 230PM). EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
WE GET TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. ALL OF THIS SOAKING
RAINFALL IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT AND A
STALLED BOUNDARY/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
PROMOTING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING AGAINST THE STALLED
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR THE AMPLE PLUME OF GULF COAST MOISTURE TO
BE WRUNG OUT OVER THE REGION. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY SHUTDOWN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS
ON THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL SCRUB OUT THE HYBRID CAD WEDGE WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND REPLACE IT WITH DRYING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME SNOW LATE AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL/IMPACTFUL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
LOOK TO HOLD OFF OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE PA/MD LINE
(CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MD AND NORTHERN VA) WITH UPPER 40S AND MID
50S SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN FACE OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HI-RES
CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE A
CONVECTIVE LINE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM A A HEAVY BURST OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH WITH A BRIEF HEAVY SNOW/RAIN/GRAUPEL MIX FURTHER EAST
TOWARD THE I-81/I-95 METRO AREAS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR GARRETT, WESTERN GRANT, AND WESTERN PENDLETON
COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WESTERN FAVORED SLOPES. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM SNOW GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY
IN THE DGZ, HIGH SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER, AND THE UPSLOPE
POTENTIAL FROM MOISTURE COMING OFF THE LAKES. SLRS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON WITH RATIOS RUNNING
BETWEEN 15:1 TO 20:1 BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER FOR ACCUMULATION FURTHER EAST ALTHOUGH A BRIEF DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT UNDER ANY SNOW STREAMERS THAT SURVIVE (DUE
TO HIGH SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER) OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN LOCATIONS
WEST OF I-81. THIS INCLUDES THE AREAS SUCH AS THE CATOCTIN
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM HANCOCK,MD DOWN TO
MONTEREY, VA. AREAS EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS LOOK TO SEE TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES ALSO ABOVE FREEZING
LIMITING ANY IMPACT.
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW, WILL BE THE CONCERN FOR WIND. WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOCATIONS IN THE LEE
OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THESE ADVISORIES
WITH TWO SURGES OF WIND EXPECTED. THE 1ST SURGE OF WIND WILL BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT STARTING IN THE WEST AROUND 10AM AND
PUSHING EAST TOWARD THE METROS AROUND 3PM. A SECONDARY SURGE OF
WIND IS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS PRESSURES
RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH IN THE ADVISORY
ZONE. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT COULD SEE NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES GIVEN THE SNOW SQUALL AND SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL. EXPECT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1/4 MILE
AT TIMES ALONG I-68/US-40 WEST OF FROSTBURG, MD, US-219 FROM THE
PA/MD LINE TO WV LINE, US-33 WEST OF FRANKLIN, WV AND US-48
WEST OF MOOREFIELD, WV. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY THEN
HOLD STEADY IF NOT FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID TO
UPPER 20S OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 40S OVER THE VA
PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN MD.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S FOR MOST WITH TEENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MAY REACH
THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
MARGINAL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX, BUT MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO
AFFECT THE RIDGES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE DAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW)
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY SPILL TO THE EAST. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THEREAFTER AS A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. IF THIS TROUGH WERE TO
PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE, LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD BE WINTRY IN PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN THIS SCENARIO FOR A FEW RUNS, BUT AS OF NOW IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE OR EVEN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
JUST A PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY QUICKLY APPROACH LATER
FRIDAY OR AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT AT THIS TIME, THOSE
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERALL LOOKING AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AMONGST THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN PIVOTING THROUGH. RAINFALL
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, HAS BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE LEADING TO POCKETS
OF IFR TO LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AT TIMES AS STEADY RAIN REMAINS THROUGH SUNSET. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS DOWN TOWARD ROA/LYH/SHD AS OF
1945Z/245PM WITH ANOTHER 2-5 HRS OF RAIN EXPECTED UP ACROSS THE
CORRIDOR TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES AND AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF THE DCA GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT NEARBY.
THE STEADY SHIELD OF RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 22-01Z/5-8PM AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ALLOWING CEILINGS TO IMPROVE BACK
TOWARD HIGH END MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE CORRIDOR. UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL LINGER WELL WEST OF
MRB/CBE/SHD HEADING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LEADING TO POTENTIAL
SUB-VFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS START EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
MORE POTENT COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL DRIVE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS/STREAMERS OR EVEN GRAUPEL
SHOWERS MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS THE I-81 TERMINALS (MRB, FDK,
HGR, SHD) BETWEEN 15- 20Z/10AM-3PM. DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD PROB30S AND WILL PASS ALONG TO NEXT SHIFT FOR
FURTHER EVALUATION. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. WIND WILL
BE THE BIGGER STORY WITH THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
AT 30-40 KTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR BETWEEN 10AM-3PM AS
THE FRONT SURGES THROUGH AND AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS PRESSURES RISE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH (VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME).
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD GUST
TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY BUT PRECIPITATION/SUB-VFR CHANCES ARE LOW. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
MARINE
SUB-SCA LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND START TO
PICK UP ACROSS THE WIDER WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF TANGIER SOUND AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED DURING THAT TIME
FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST WATERS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT, CAUSING WINDS
TO TURN TO THE WEST. SCA GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON (12-
3PM) A SURGE OF WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35-40
KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
WATERS FROM 6AM SUNDAY THROUGH 1 AM MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH, WITH
SUB- SCA WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY, WITH SCAS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS COULD FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY, BUT THE
WEATHER PATTERN PROGRESSION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY THIS TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR MDZ501-502-509-510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR VAZ503-504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/EST
MARINE...ADS/KJP/EST
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