588
FXUS61 KLWX 110220
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
920 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORHT-CENTRAL VIRGINIA WILL MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE SAME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SERIES OF FRONTS SET TO CROSS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
CURRENT ANALYSIS OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AS OF 9PM THIS EVENING
SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THEN NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS NOTED BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. WIDELY SCATTERED PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
INDICATED ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHWEST INTO
THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE
NOTED THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA ARE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70, WHILE 50 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST, TEMPERATURES
ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 40S WITH PATCHY FOG IN AREAS. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA, TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50 BUT ARE FALLING INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST. AS THE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, THE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE APPALACHIANS ARE SLIDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF THESE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MIX WITH SNOWFLAKES LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE STRONGEST OF THE COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO BLAST THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SOME STRONG MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE PROMINENT AND WE COULD EVEN ENCOUNTER A COUPLE OF
NASTY SNOW SQUALLS IN A FEW PLACES, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 11AM AND
3PM SUNDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH,
TEMPERATURES DROPPING STEADILY THROUGH THE 30S, LOW LEVEL AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY, AND DESCENT MODEL QPF OUTPUT IN A FEW
PLACES ARE ALL GOOD SIGNS THAT SNOW SQUALLS LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO BE AT THE TOP OF OUR MINDS. SURE, WE
WILL ENCOUNTER A FEW INCHES OF SNOW, PERHAPS 2 TO 4 INCHES, IN
THE APPALACHIANS AS WE STILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT AND ARE ANTICIPATING COLD AIR SUPPORT AND UPSLOPE WINDS.
HOWEVER, SNOW SQUALLS COULD OCCUR NOT JUST IN THE APPALACHIANS
BUT ALSO DOWNWIND INTO PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY, CENTRAL
MARYLAND, EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE, AND FAR NORTHERN
VIRGINIA. KEEP THIS IN MIND IF TRAVELING DURING THE PEAK OF THE
DAY. SNOW SQUALLS CAN REDUCE VISIBILITY VERY QUICKLY TO NEAR
ZERO AND SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR SO ON ONE
PART OF THE ROADWAY, WHILE THE ROADS MAY BE BARE LEADING UP TO
THE SNOW SQUALL.
ASIDE FROM THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND DANGERS OF POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS, STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A BIG FACTOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOCATIONS IN THE LEE OF THE ALLEGHENIES
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THESE ADVISORIES WITH TWO SURGES OF
WIND EXPECTED. THE 1ST SURGE OF WIND WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONT STARTING IN THE WEST AROUND 10AM AND PUSHING EAST TOWARD
THE METROS AROUND 3PM. A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND IS EXPECTED
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS PRESSURES RISE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH IN THE ADVISORY ZONE. LOCATIONS WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT COULD SEE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES GIVEN THE SNOW SQUALL AND SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL. EXPECT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES ALONG I-68/US-40
WEST OF FROSTBURG, MD, US-219 FROM THE PA/MD LINE TO WV LINE,
US-33 WEST OF FRANKLIN, WV AND US-48 WEST OF MOOREFIELD, WV.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID 40S OVER THE VA PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN MD.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S FOR MOST WITH TEENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MAY REACH
THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
MARGINAL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX, BUT MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO
AFFECT THE RIDGES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE DAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW)
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY SPILL TO THE EAST. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THEREAFTER AS A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. IF THIS TROUGH WERE TO
PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE, LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD BE WINTRY IN PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN THIS SCENARIO FOR A FEW RUNS, BUT AS OF NOW IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE OR EVEN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
JUST A PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY QUICKLY APPROACH LATER
FRIDAY OR AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT AT THIS TIME, THOSE
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS, PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS, EXPECTED INTO THE HEART
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS PATCHY FOG, RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIMITED
SHOWERS ARE ALL ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. AT TIMES, WINDS
MAY REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK LOW
MOVES AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AS WINDS BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM LIFR/IFR TO MVFR/VFR ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL LINGER WELL
WEST OF MRB/CBE/SHD HEADING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LEADING
TO POTENTIAL SUB-VFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS START EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
MORE POTENT COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL DRIVE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS/STREAMERS OR EVEN GRAUPEL
SHOWERS MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS THE I-81 TERMINALS (MRB, FDK,
HGR, SHD) BETWEEN 16- 20Z/11AM-3PM. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. WIND WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY WITH THE FRONT WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST GUSTS AT 30-40 KTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 10AM-3PM AS THE FRONT SURGES THROUGH AND AGAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS PRESSURES RISE. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH (VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME).
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD GUST
TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY BUT PRECIPITATION/SUB-VFR CHANCES ARE LOW. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
MARINE
SUB-SCA LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND REMAIN SUB-SCA. THE
WIDER PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE COULD HAVE SCA CONDITIONS AS
THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON (12- 4PM) A SURGE OF WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THAT FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS
FROM 6AM SUNDAY THROUGH 1 AM MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH,
WITH SUB- SCA WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY, WITH SCAS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS COULD FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY, BUT THE
WEATHER PATTERN PROGRESSION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY THIS TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR MDZ501-502-509-510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR VAZ503-504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...KLW/EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/EST
MARINE...ADS/KLW/EST
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