369
FXUS61 KLWX 111530
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1030 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER
TROUGHING WILL DIG ALONG THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF A FRONT AS OF 1530Z WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINING ON TRACK. ROADS ARE COVERED ON
CAMERAS IN THE ALLEGHENIES DUE TO THE SFC TEMPS BEING BELOW
FREEZING. WITH NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY, EVENTUALLY TRACKING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY
AROUND 11 AM, THE I-81 CORRIDOR AROUND 12-1 PM, THE I-95
CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM, AND FINALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 4 PM. A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LEADING TO A BRIEF BURST OF MIXED
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL IN MANY LOCATIONS. IN THE MOUNTAINS,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AS A RESULT, NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, IT WOULDN'T BE SHOCKING TO
SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALONG ANY HIGHER RIDGETOPS TO THE EAST OF
THE ALLEGHENIES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (POTOMAC HIGHLANDS,
BLUE RIDGE, CATOCTINS, AND MAYBE PARR'S RIDGE). ELSEWHERE,
SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL LIKELY STILL MIX IN DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO VERY STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES, VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, AND STRONG LIFT/NON-ZERO INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A 15-30
MINUTE PERIOD WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOW MIXES IN.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ALLEGHENIES,
WHERE A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE MOST INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 9 AM AND 4 PM.
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 50-100 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE, WITH COMPLETE SATURATION AND STRONG LIFT
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER REACHING VALUES BETWEEN 3 AND 7 FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. NEAR- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS, WITH BOTH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND
DOWN IN THE ALLEGHENIES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE THE
WIND. WINDS WILL START OUT RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST, BUT
INCREASE ABRUPTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE ALLEGHENIES, THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS JUST TO THEIR
EAST, AND THE BLUE RIDGE FROM 10 AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GUSTS OF
45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST,
GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH MOST
GUSTS FALLING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW, AND THEN OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S TOMORROW (30S MOUNTAINS), WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
(LOWER 40S MOUNTAINS) ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S MONDAY NIGHT, AND THEN 30S TO NEAR 40
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
PATTERN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FCST TO DIG FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LKS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE WEEK AND HELP SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN OUR
VICINITY WED NIGHT OR THU. PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WED,
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE BY THU NIGHT. ENSEMBLE PLOTS SEEM
TO FAVOR A SFC LOW TRACK WEST OF THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN CITIES FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A SNOW THREAT
FOR INTERIOR AREAS AND RAIN TO SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MAJOR CITIES AS
SFC LOW PULLS AWAY AND COLDER IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD. AT THIS TIME, IT
JUST A PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO, BUT NOT A SIG THREAT FOR HEAVY
SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. REMAINING CHILLY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EARLIER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BROKEN UP, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF HEAVY MIXED
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWER MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SHORT DURATION RESTRICTIONS AT THE
TERMINALS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO IFR OR LOWER IF
ENOUGH SNOW MIXES IN. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WILL LIKELY GUST TO
AROUND 30-35 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LIGHTER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH WINDS
TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
RAIN AND/OR SNOW OR RAIN TO SNOW POTENTIAL WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS LIKELY TO PICK THU BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MARINE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST TODAY. SCA LEVEL GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT,
WITH SCA GUSTS POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY. SUB-SCA LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
AND GRADUALLY PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS MAY REACH LOW-END
SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THU, POSSIBLE GALES THU NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ501-502-509-
510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ503-504-507-
508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ050-055-
501>506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP/CPB
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KJP
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