236
FXUS61 KLWX 120210
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
910 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS CROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT AND STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BOTH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE
BEING EXPIRED AS SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS WELL STRONG
WINDS ARE ENDING OR DIMINISHING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODIFY SOME EACH DAY AND BECOME CLOSE TO
AVERAGE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN
THE 40S MONDAY (COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS) AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT BUT
MODIFYING INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
IT'S A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES
OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND AHEAD. TRACKING MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WHICH LOOK TO CROSS
DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBTLE
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION INTENSITY/TOTALS THIS FAR OUT. ONE THING TO
NOTE IS THAT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO BETTER
PERSPECTIVE AT LEAST FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM
COMPARED TO WEEKEND. STILL PLENTY TO MONITOR HERE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS OUT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SWING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
DRAGGING IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OR JUST SIT OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE MAIN TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION LIES WITHIN HOW THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE
GFS, ECMWF,ECS,AND GEFS ARE THE AGGRESSORS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WHILE THE CANADIAN/UKMET ARE NOT.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AHEAD. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS SOMETIME LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
SPREAD EAST. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE ALLEGHENIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW, THE
PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW ARE ABOVE 40 PERCENT
(ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES). THESE PROBABILITIES DROP DOWN BETWEEN
10-15 PERCENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HEADING INTO THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. A LOT OF THIS OF COURSE HAS TO DO
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT'S INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. EVEN WITH THAT SAID, SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THIS RIGHT NOW IS LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM OUTSIDE
OF THE SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRAG
ADDITIONAL COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AHEAD. KEEP TUNED FOR THE CHANGING FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS
AT WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONCE
AGAIN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EAST. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT THE TERMINALS. OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES NEAR MRB, SNOW AND RAIN AND GRAUPEL ARE FINISHED
WITH THIS EVENT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT
PRECIPITATION/SUB- VFR CHANCES ARE LOW. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
SUB-VFR REDUCTIONS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS THURSDAY AS A STRONG
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
MARINE
GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OVER PARTS
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS COULD FOLLOW THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN PROGRESSION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ501-502-509-
510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ503-504-507-
508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ050-055-
501>506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...KLW/CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...KLW/CPB/EST
MARINE...KLW/CPB/EST
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