105
FXUS61 KLWX 121909
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
209 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER, UPPER TROUGHING WILL DIG ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LATEST GOES IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING ACROSS OH
EASTWARD INTO PA. THESE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO
PARTS OF MD AND THE WV PANHANDLE. THESE ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
HIGH CLOUDS, SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST (30S
MOUNTAINS).
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOCAL WX TUESDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. S'LY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25
MPH BRINGING IN SEASONABLY MILD AIR TO THE AREA. HIGHS TUE WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (MID 40S MOUNTAINS).
DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS ON UL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH UPWARD ASCENT WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WV PANHANDLE AND WESTERN MD. HIGHS
WED WILL BE NEAR 50 FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE TERRAIN. UNCERTAINTY
DOES EXIST WITH THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WITH
UPWARDS OF A 5-8 DEGREE DIFFERENCE. THIS IMPACTS THE TRANSITION
TO SNOW LATE WED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO WED
NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW/BROADER UPPER
TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE PRESSURE FALLS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH, WHICH WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
PA/NY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE ULL,
WITH RECENT RUNS BRINGING IT NORTHWARD. AS THE ULL TRACKS EAST,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW. THIS WILL ENABLE COLDER AIR
TO START TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW. AS A RESULT, PRECIP IN THE
ALLEGHENIES WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND BECOME ENHANCED WITHIN
UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SNOW MAY ALSO START TO MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT RECENT TRENDS HAVE LOWERED THIS
POTENTIAL. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLEGHENIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WINTER WX ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE), WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FURTHER EAST. SHOULD
BE NOTED THERE ARE LOW PROBS FOR A COATING OF SNOW SE OF I-95,
BUT GETTING MOISTURE WHILE THERE IS COLD AIR IS TYPICALLY
DIFFICULT IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE TRACK OF THE ULL WILL BE
ESSENTIAL IN DETERMINING ANY ASSOCIATED LAKE FETCH AND HOW
QUICKLY DRY AIR MOVES IN SHUTTING DOWN THE UPSLOPE SNOW.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
(NEAR/SUB- FREEZING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, MID- UPPER 30S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FAVOR
MAINLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A HIGH AMPLITUDE CONFIGURATION
SETS UP WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE EAST. THIS MERIDIONAL
SETUP WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE INTRUSIONS OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THE PATTERN IS
NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT WITH ONLY MINIMAL INFLUENCES FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IN THIS REGIME AS AIDED BY THE UPSLOPE ENHANCED FLOW.
WITHIN THIS WAVE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS, THE FIRST ONE IMPACTS THE AREA
DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD THE METROS,
THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF FORCING. FOR
NOW, PLAN ON MAINTAINING A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS U.S. 15 AND POINTS EASTWARD. OTHERWISE, UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THOSE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND, A
BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WIND PICKS UP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S (TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS), ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH, LOCALLY
NEAR 40 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE ALLEGHENY RIDGES. A COLD AND BLUSTERY
NIGHT LIES AHEAD AS LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS, WITH WIDESPREAD
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THIS COMES WITH SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS FOR MANY AND AROUND 0 TO -10F FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. LIKE THE PRECEDING SYSTEM,
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM CONNECTION WHICH
OFTEN DRIVES BIGGER SNOWFALL EVENTS OVER THE REGION. WILL AGAIN
FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ALLEGHENY MOUNTAIN SNOWS ALONG WITH RENEWED
COLD AIR ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THIS
PATTERN HOLDS UP INTO PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS RETURNS WED NIGHT.
FOR WINDS, SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. WINDS DIE DOWN TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY TUE.
WINDS TUE WILL BE 10G25KT OR SO OUTSIDE TERRAIN. LESSER WINDS
OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WED. WINDS SHIFT NW WED
NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
A POWERFUL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. WITH A BRUNT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY ANY IMPACTS WOULD
REACH THE AREA TAF SITES. A FEW RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
THURSDAY MORNING IF A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN MATERIALIZE. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY AS A
BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. AFTERNOON/EVENING
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON BOTH DAYS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
MARINE
LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12
KTS. S'LY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR BOTH TUE AND WED. SCA
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT, BUT
CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS WAS TO WAIT A CYCLE BEFORE
ISSUANCE TO MAKE SURE CONFIDENCE IS THERE. WINDS WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NW ON WED NIGHT.
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT, A BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WIND
OVERSPREADS THE AREA WATERWAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY
OCCASIONAL GALES AT TIMES. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON
FRIDAY. SOME RESIDUAL ADVISORY-CALIBER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB/KJP
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...BRO/CPB
MARINE...BRO/CPB
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