862
FXUS61 KLWX 122357
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
657 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SET TO FOLLOW WEDNESDAY INTI THURSDAY. THIS
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSISTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DELIVERING ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER, WIND, AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. A STRIPE OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTH LEADING TO CALM, COLD, AND RELATIVELY CLEAR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH NEARBY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTH
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY BREEZES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO GUSTS 20-25 MPH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SEASONABLY
MILD AIR TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S (MID
40S MOUNTAINS).
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS ON UL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH UPWARD ASCENT WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WV PANHANDLE AND WESTERN MD. HIGHS
WED WILL BE NEAR 50 FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE TERRAIN. UNCERTAINTY
DOES EXIST WITH THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES WITH
UPWARDS OF A 5-8 DEGREE DIFFERENCE. THIS IMPACTS THE TRANSITION
TO SNOW LATE WED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO WED
NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW/BROADER UPPER
TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE PRESSURE FALLS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH, WHICH WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
PA/NY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE ULL,
WITH RECENT RUNS BRINGING IT NORTHWARD. AS THE ULL TRACKS EAST,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW. THIS WILL ENABLE COLDER AIR
TO START TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW. AS A RESULT, PRECIP IN THE
ALLEGHENIES WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND BECOME ENHANCED WITHIN
UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SNOW MAY ALSO START TO MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT RECENT TRENDS HAVE LOWERED THIS
POTENTIAL. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLEGHENIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WINTER WX ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE), WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FURTHER EAST. SHOULD
BE NOTED THERE ARE LOW PROBS FOR A COATING OF SNOW SE OF I-95,
BUT GETTING MOISTURE WHILE THERE IS COLD AIR IS TYPICALLY
DIFFICULT IN THESE SCENARIOS. THE TRACK OF THE ULL WILL BE
ESSENTIAL IN DETERMINING ANY ASSOCIATED LAKE FETCH AND HOW
QUICKLY DRY AIR MOVES IN SHUTTING DOWN THE UPSLOPE SNOW.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
(NEAR/SUB- FREEZING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, MID- UPPER 30S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FAVOR
MAINLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A HIGH AMPLITUDE CONFIGURATION
SETS UP WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE EAST. THIS MERIDIONAL
SETUP WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE INTRUSIONS OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THE PATTERN IS
NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT WITH ONLY MINIMAL INFLUENCES FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IN THIS REGIME AS AIDED BY THE UPSLOPE ENHANCED FLOW.
WITHIN THIS WAVE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS, THE FIRST ONE IMPACTS THE AREA
DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD THE METROS,
THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF FORCING. FOR
NOW, PLAN ON MAINTAINING A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS U.S. 15 AND POINTS EASTWARD. OTHERWISE, UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THOSE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND, A
BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WIND PICKS UP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S (TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS), ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH, LOCALLY
NEAR 40 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE ALLEGHENY RIDGES. A COLD AND BLUSTERY
NIGHT LIES AHEAD AS LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS, WITH WIDESPREAD
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THIS COMES WITH SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS FOR MANY AND AROUND 0 TO -10F FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. LIKE THE PRECEDING SYSTEM,
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM CONNECTION WHICH
OFTEN DRIVES BIGGER SNOWFALL EVENTS OVER THE REGION. WILL AGAIN
FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ALLEGHENY MOUNTAIN SNOWS ALONG WITH RENEWED
COLD AIR ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THIS
PATTERN HOLDS UP INTO PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EARLY ON TO GIVE WAY TO
SKC/FEW250 CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE EVENING AND
NIGHT PROGRESS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN WIND AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AREAWIDE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW SHOWERS PASSING
THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KTS THURSDAY MORNING.
A POWERFUL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. WITH A BRUNT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY ANY IMPACTS WOULD
REACH THE AREA TAF SITES. A FEW RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
THURSDAY MORNING IF A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN MATERIALIZE. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY AS A
BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. AFTERNOON/EVENING
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON BOTH DAYS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH DURING THIS
TIME LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY CHANNELING. SUB-SCA LEVEL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WEDNESDAY BEFORE SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT, A BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WIND
OVERSPREADS THE AREA WATERWAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY
OCCASIONAL GALES AT TIMES. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON
FRIDAY. SOME RESIDUAL ADVISORY-CALIBER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...CPB/EST
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...BRO/CPB/EST
MARINE...BRO/CPB/EST
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