222
FXUS61 KLWX 131453
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
953 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, UPPER
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN QUIESCENT WX TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS OFFSHORE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
TODAY. FURTHER TO OUR NORTH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY,
BUT IT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TOWARD THE EAST AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
BY PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR MOST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA COASTLINE TODAY, BUILDING A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. IN
RESPONSE, TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE DIGGING TROUGH'S
PRIMARY AXIS WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR WEST OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, PLACING US IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
JET STREAK IS MODELED TO DEVELOP WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, WITH THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET SITUATED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT CAMS HINT
THAT A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW IN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS AN AREA BOUNDED ROUGHLY
BY I-95, I-66 AND I-81. THAT BEING SAID, A SHOWER COULD BE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS).
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE HEART OF THE TROUGH WILL START TO MAKE EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND OHIO, EVENTUALLY REACHING NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM AT THE SURFACE AND TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS NY/PA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS OCCURS, A
TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY START
TO FILTER INTO THE ALLEGHENIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ENSUING DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
ALLEGHENIES AND THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FURTHER EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES IN THE ALLEGHENIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE
RATHER MARGINAL, SUGGESTING A VERY WET SNOW THAT MAY STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH BELOW FREEZING DURING THE EVENING, WITH
SNOW CONTINUING ON AND OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A FLASH
FREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, WITH AROUND 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AIR FOR THE COLD AIR TO BUILD TO THE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT RAIN MAY END
AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE COLD
AIR MOVES IN, THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME REFREEZE OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST, WITH TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TO AROUND -15 C, WHICH WILL YIELD
DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS (TEENS IN THE
MOUNTAINS). NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS HOLDING IN
THE TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND BELOW
ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
BROAD RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST LOOKS TO CREST ON FRIDAY,
CONTINUING TO FORCE LOWER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM
OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THURSDAY'S SYSTEM
WILL BE DEPARTING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME ABSORBED IN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES/HUDSON BAYS. MEANWHILE, A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST (MN/WI),
WITH A DEEPER SHORTWAVE/UPPER-LEVEL LOW FAST ON ITS HEELS.
ALTHOUGH THE LARGE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/EASTERN PACIFIC
(+PNA) IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND COLD AIR
INTRUSIONS (ESPECIALLY WITH -AO), A LACK OF STURDY DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING (NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY +NAO) MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON WELL-TIMED
PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM. THE
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT (TYPICAL OF LA NINA),
WHICH TYPICALLY INVOLVES PROGRESSIVE, FAST-MOVING SMALLER SCALE
WAVES. THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN IN BOTH TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE WITH MUCH PRECISION BEYOND A FEW DAYS INTO THE FUTURE.
THAT, PLUS SUBTLE TO NEGLIGIBLE INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM,
LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS (WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW).
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA MOVES FROM EAST OF JAMES BAY TO A
POSITION NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE DAVIS STRAIT/SOUTHERN GREENLAND THIS
WEEKEND. THAT ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO BUILD A BIT OVER ICELAND INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREENLAND, SOMEWHAT RESEMBLING A PSEUDO-
NEGATIVE NAO. THIS OCCURS AS WEST COAST RIDGING HOLDS FIRM BUT
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, AND ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM WAVES IN NW FLOW
PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THESE WAVES
WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE LIKE A ROLLER
COASTER, BUT WITH ONLY TRANSIENT BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM THESE PIECES
MAY RUSH OFF THE COAST BEFORE DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CAN CONSOLIDATE.
IF THE DOWNSTREAM PSEUDO-BLOCK PROVES A BIT STRONGER OR CAN HOLD ON
A LITTLE LONGER, THIS MAY FORCE THE WAVES COMING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO SLOW AND PHASE, WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON A
MORE NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE TILT. THIS IS THE SCENARIO IN WHICH LOW
PRESSURE COULD FEASIBLY DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST SOMETIME
BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY A
SMALL SUBSET OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLES (~10% AS OF MONDAY NIGHT), THOUGH
THE VAST MAJORITY MAINTAIN MINIMAL PHASING.
HERE ARE SOME SEMI-SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFTS THAT WOULD FAVOR A SNOWIER
SCENARIO EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS:
(1) A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM "PSEUDO-BLOCK" OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
-ALLOWS FOR MORE PHASING, FORCES LOW PRESSURE TO "HUG" THE COAST
(2) A WEAKER/FLATTER/QUICKER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
-ALLOWS FOR MORE SPACE BETWEEN WAVES, ENABLING MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW
(3) A DEEPER/SLOWER/NEUTRAL-TO-NEGATIVE-TILT WAVE SUNDAY-MONDAY
-ALLOWS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE COAST
THE MORE THE ABOVE PIECES ALIGN, THE HIGHER THE POTENTIAL FOR
APPRECIABLE SNOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS; BUT, THIS APPEARS TO BE A
RATHER LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AS WESTERN RIDGING WEAKENS/RE-ORIENTS ITSELF INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. HIGHER HEIGHTS MAY CONTINUE TO TRY AND POKE INTO GREENLAND.
THIS FAVORS CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A TREND FOR
SLIGHT MODERATION, BUT WITH INHERENTLY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY FURTHER
OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS MAY LOWER FOR A BRIEF
TIME WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
GUST TO AROUND 20-30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD WANDER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. AT THE
MOMENT, WINDS LOOK TO BE WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE FAST-MOVING WAVES WHICH COME WITH INHERENT
LOWER PREDICTABILITY. SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY, BUT OVERALL WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.
MARINE
SUB-SCA LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW-END SCA GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOSE
SCA GUSTS MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WIDEST WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF TANGIER
SOUND.
SUB-SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCA GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW LOW-END GALE
GUSTS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY
MORNING, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>533-536-539>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-538.
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP/CPB
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/CPB
MARINE...DHOF/KJP/CPB
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