023
FXUS61 KLWX 131918
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
218 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS QUIESCENT AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 3) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE ALLEGHENY
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- 4) THE WEATHER WILL TURN COLDER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MILD CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
S'LY WINDS WILL BRING ABOVE AVG TEMPS TODAY, WITH TEMPS
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
OVERNIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR MOST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
TROUGHING WILL DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
THE FA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POTENT JET STREET. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT A PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE POTENTIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA, WITH SHOWERS AREAWIDE. ASIDE FROM THE
RAIN, SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY, WITH MILD CONDITIONS AND TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S (30S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
THROUGH THE DAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND MOVE
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
ALLEGHENIES AND EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CRASH BELOW FREEZING DURING THE EVENING, WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON
AND OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A FLASH FREEZE MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN
THE ALLEGHENIES, AROUND 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH A
FEW 4" REPORTS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WHOLE FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST IN THE ALLEGHENIES. THERMAL PROFILES DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW ARE MARGINAL AT BEST, BUT DO SUPPORT A HEAVY
WET SNOW ABOVE 3000 OR 3500 FT. BELOW THAT, SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE, BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY.
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THE COLD AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO SPILL
OVER AND CHASING MOISTURE AS IT HEADS EASTWARD. THIS IS ALWAYS A
HARD SET UP TO ACHIEVE ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW FLURRIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OR A WORST CASE SCENARIO OF A
COATING.
COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TO AROUND -15 C, WHICH WILL YIELD
DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS (TEENS IN THE
MOUNTAINS). NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS HOLDING IN
THE TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND BELOW
ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE ALLEGHENY
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONE, POSSIBLY TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RESULT IN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGHING INTO THE EASTERN US. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY, BUT THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES MAY
ATTEMPT TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, BUT PROFILES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS RESULTING IN TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES, THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS
WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT WILL BE RELATED TO THE PUSH OF
WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING AND/OR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME SNOW OR A MIX COULD OCCUR DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION, BUT AT THE MOMENT, IMPACTS
APPEAR LIMITED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR TEMPERATURES, SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 4...THE WEATHER WILL TURN COLDER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES PUSH FARTHER BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
TROUGHING REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN US. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS (TEENS/20S HIGHS AND
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS). GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BELOW ZERO. THERE ARE LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH AS WELL
AS SOME POINT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH. AS USUAL, THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS, WITH MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER, THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOULD ANY PRECIPITATION FALL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED, ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CIGS MAY LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME
WED EVE BEFORE CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR LATE WED NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THU.
LIGHT S/SW WINDS BOTH TODAY AND WED. LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NW WED NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL LIKELY
GUST TO AROUND 20-30 KNOTS WED NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THU. HAS
BEEN A QUICKER TREND WITH FROPA, AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 30-35 MPH
GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL FRI THROUGH SUN. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SAT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. S TO SW WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KT
FRI AND SAT, THEN WEST WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KT ON
SUN.
MARINE
S'LY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
EXPECTED. THOSE SCA GUSTS MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WIDEST WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF
TANGIER SOUND.
SUB-SCA LEVEL S'LY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
DAY WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS WED NIGHT, WITH
WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF, IT THE TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FASTER AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR GLW GUSTS HAS INCREASED DUE TO THE SUDDEN ONSET NATURE. SCA
GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT, WITH A FEW LOW- END GALE GUSTS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
SCAS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRI INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SAT, AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED IN WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH SUN.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>533-
536-539>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-538.
DISCUSSION...CPB/KJP/ADS
AVIATION...CPB/ADS
MARINE...CPB/ADS
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