043
FXUS61 KLWX 140021
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
721 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN PENDLETON
AND WESTERN GRANT COUNTIES IN WV FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY TO 10AM
THURSDAY. IMPACTFUL SNOW IS LIKELY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET
WITH A FLASH FREEZE WEDNESDAY EVENING. FURTHER EXPANSION OF
THIS ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PENDING HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT.
ELSEWHERE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS QUIET AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 3) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- 4) THE WEATHER WILL TURN COLDER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MILD CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR MOST. A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW TO MID 50S (UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS). WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
TROUGHING WILL DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
FA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POTENT JET STREAK. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
POTENTIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA, WITH SHOWERS AREAWIDE.
ASIDE FROM THE RAIN, SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY, WITH MILD CONDITIONS
AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S (30S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
THROUGH THE DAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH BELOW FREEZING
DURING THE EVENING, WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON AND OFF THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. A FLASH FREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN THE ALLEGHENIES, AROUND 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH A FEW 4" REPORTS POSSIBLE ON
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. HIGHEST TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN WESTERN GRANT/WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES.
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IN THE
ALLEGHENIES. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST, BUT DO SUPPORT A HEAVY WET SNOW ABOVE 3500
FT. BELOW THAT, SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR WESTERN GRANT AND WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES FROM 7PM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10AM THURSDAY. THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR ADVISORY THRESHOLD SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THE COLD AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO SPILL OVER
AND WILL BE CHASING MOISTURE AS IT HEADS EASTWARD. THIS IS
ALWAYS A HARD SET UP TO ACHIEVE ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OR A WORST CASE
SCENARIO OF A COATING (ESPECIALLY ON SOME OF THE HILLTOPS ACROSS
THE NORTH).
COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TO AROUND -15 C, WHICH WILL YIELD DAYTIME
HIGHS AROUND FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS (TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS).
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL
CONSIDERABLY COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS HOLDING IN THE TEENS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IT
WILL REMAIN COLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONE, POSSIBLY TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RESULT IN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGHING INTO THE EASTERN US. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY, BUT THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES MAY
ATTEMPT TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, BUT PROFILES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS RESULTING IN TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES, THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS
WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT IT WILL BE RELATED TO THE
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING AND/OR THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME SNOW OR A MIX COULD
OCCUR DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION, BUT AT THE
MOMENT, IMPACTS APPEAR LIMITED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR
TEMPERATURES, SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 4...THE WEATHER WILL TURN COLDER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES PUSH FARTHER BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
TROUGHING REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN US. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS (TEENS/20S HIGHS AND
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS). GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BELOW ZERO. THERE ARE LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH AS WELL
AS SOME POINT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH. AS USUAL, THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS, WITH MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER, THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOULD ANY PRECIPITATION FALL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY SPREADS
EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOMETIME AFTER
18Z/1PM EST. BEYOND 18Z/1PM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6Z/1AM EST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPORARY SUB-
VFR REDUCTIONS. THIS WILL BE FROM -RA AND PERHAPS -RASN ON THE
BACK END OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. DID PROB30S -RASN
AT KIAD LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ENCOMPASS THE THREAT. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5
TO 10 KT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT AND BEHIND
IT FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST
UP TO 20 KT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.
MARINE
SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY CHANNELING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH MORE INTERMITTENT
GUSTS ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING. GUSTS MAY LINGER OVER WIDER PARTS
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. SCA
LEVEL WINDS RETURN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE FRONT PASSES. ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF, THE TREND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY FASTER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS HAS
INCREASED DUE TO THE SUDDEN ONSET NATURE. SOLID SCA GUSTS
APPEAR LIKELY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW LOW-END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT; THIS MAY BE HANDLED WITH
SMWS OR PERHAPS A SHORT-FUSED GLW DEPENDING ON SUDDEN
ONSET/DURATION.
SCAS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY, AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED IN WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>533-
536-539>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-538.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/CPB/EST
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/CPB/EST
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/CPB/EST
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