107
FXUS61 KLWX 141940
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW TOTALS IN THE ALLEGHENIES WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
AREAS IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF GARRETT COUNTY FORECAST TO
RECEIVE NEAR 5 INCHES OF SNOW.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.
- 2) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING FRIGID
WIND CHILLS AND WINTRY WX AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING,
PIVOTING TOWARDS THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, THE TROUGH PUSHES A POTENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
IN THE ALLEGHENIES, UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION RATES THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES CRASH AND THE
SNOW STARTS TO STICK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN PENDLETON, WESTERN GRANT, AND WESTERN GARRETT COUNTIES,
WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING (WITH MOST OF IT FALLING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT).
AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, A FLASH FREEZE
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE ALLEGHENIES. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
REFREEZE OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST, WITH
TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
FOR MOST, BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE DAY IN THE ALLEGHENIES. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THERE WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S(TEENS IN THE
ALLEGHENIES) ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25
TO 35MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS
(NEGATIVES ALLEGHENIES) IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PENDLETON AND WESTERN
GRANT COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING FRIGID WIND
CHILLS AND WINTRY WX AT TIMES.
REMAINING UNSETTLED FRI INTO SAT WITH SW ENERGY AND WEAK LOWS
BRINGING SNOW TO THE ALLEGHENIES. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE DURING THIS PERIOD, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL WINTER WX ADVISORY ISSUANCE. FURTHER EAST SAT, SNOW OR
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF PRECIP WRT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IMPACTS APPEAR LIMITED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR
TEMPS, SAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WKND BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
UNCERTAINTY ARISES WITH POTENTIAL SYSTEM SUN INTO EARLY MON ALONG
THE EAST COAST. RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO DIG A LITTLE MORE WITH POTENTIAL LOW FORMATION ALONG EASTERN
SEABOARD, BUT LOTS OF SPREAD AND WITH NO BLOCKING UPSTREAM
DEFINITELY A THREAD THE NEEDLE SCENARIO FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THEREAFTER, FRIGID COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WITH COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT SUN THROUGH WED IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND
BLUE RIDGE, AND POSSIBLE SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVES DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL,
BUT IF THERE IS PRECIP, IT IS LIKELY SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES BEING AT
KCHO. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT, WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND GUST 20 TO
30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. HOWEVER, THERE
ARE LOW PROBS (15-25%) OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SAT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND AGAIN SUN (10-20%) AS ANOTHER WAVE SCOOTS
BY. S TO SW WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KT SAT, THEN W WINDS COULD GUST
TO AROUND 20 KT ON SUN.
MARINE
WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.
SPORADIC GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH END SCA
GUSTS EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE OPEN
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
S'LY FLOW COULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SAT WITH ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO
SUN.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ509.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/KJP/CPB
MARINE...AVS/KJP/CPB
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