286
FXUS61 KLWX 151430
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ALLEGHENIES IS NOW IN EFFECT
UNTIL 5 PM EST WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS.
- 2) CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWER.
- 3) WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS AND WINTRY WEATHER AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFF TO
OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK, AND THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD
FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
DAY, THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN MAINE BY THIS EVENING, WHILE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITHIN
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND
25-35 MPH, AND TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WORKING IN,
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EVAPORATE
MUCH OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WAS LEFTOVER FROM LIGHT RAIN
EARLIER TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW ICY SPOTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THIS MORNING IF SOME OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FAILS TO EVAPORATE
AND REFREEZES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
AS DAYTIME HEATING IS OFFSET BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALOFT,
WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES CRASHING TO NEAR -15 C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, WITH 20S TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND TEENS IN
THE ALLEGHENIES. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
20-30 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS
HOLDING IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND THEN
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN GRANT/WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES WILL
HAVE WIND CHILLS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES TODAY,
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST. A FEW MORE BREAKS OF SUN ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF IN THE ALLEGHENIES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR WESTERN GARRETT, WESTERN PENDLETON, AND WESTERN GRANT
COUNTIES. IN TOTAL, 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THOSE
LOCATIONS, WITH ROUGHLY 1-3 INCHES FALLING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY. EXPECT ON AND OFF PERIODS OF HEAVIER UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BLOWING
SNOW COULD RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL OVERNIGHT, BUT IT WILL
REMAIN COLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LOWER 20S ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWER.
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, WE'LL FIND OURSELVES POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO
PROMINENT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE BULK OF THE CONUS. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
DEPART FURTHER OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY, WHILE THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOCALLY, WE'LL HAVE LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A
VERY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLATTENING SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. A COUPLE OF THE 00Z MODELS (NOTABLY THE GFS, FV3, AND
WRF-NSSL) HINT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. THE HRRR ALSO PRODUCES ECHOES ALOFT, WITH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THIS SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO APPEARS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT, TO THE POINT WHERE IT DOESN'T EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE POINT AND CLICK FORECAST. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH
NOTING, SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD, AND ANY SNOW
DURING THAT TIME WOULD LIKELY ACCUMULATE, EVEN IF IT'S LIGHT.
MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR, WHICH WILL BE
TOUGH TO OVERCOME. FOR THAT REASON, CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY, WITH WINDS
PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AROUND
DAYBREAK, AND CLIMB INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40 BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD
BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND WINTRY WEATHER AT TIMES.
A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, REORIENTING INTO MORE OF A POSITIVE TILT
OVER TIME. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT BROADER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A PERIOD OF SNOW
APPEARS LIKELY IN THE ALLEGHENIES, ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
APPEAR POSSIBLE THERE DURING THAT TIME. TO THE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW DURING THE MORNING, OR RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP WELL
INTO THE 40S TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
UNCERTAINTY ARISES WITH POTENTIAL SYSTEM SUN INTO EARLY MON ALONG
THE EAST COAST. RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO DIG A LITTLE MORE WITH POTENTIAL LOW FORMATION ALONG EASTERN
SEABOARD, BUT LOTS OF SPREAD AND WITH NO BLOCKING UPSTREAM
DEFINITELY A THREAD THE NEEDLE SCENARIO FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THEREAFTER, FRIGID COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WITH COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT SUN THROUGH WED IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND
BLUE RIDGE, AND POSSIBLE SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVES DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL,
BUT IF THERE IS PRECIP, IT IS LIKELY SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. MOST GUSTS TODAY SHOULD BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, BUT START TO
DECREASE AND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH LATE
IN THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A STRAY SNOW SHOWER
CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR IAD OR MRB DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE AN
UNLIKELY SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (15-30 PERCENT POPS) OF SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING
WESTERLY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. ANOTHER 10-20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF/ALONG THE VA/NC COAST.
MARINE
HIGH-END SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A FEW SPORADIC LOW-END GALE GUSTS
CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY
SURGE OF WINDS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS IN WESTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT. LOW-END GALE GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE WIDER WATERS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. EARLIER GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC, WHERE HIGH-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING,
AND THEN SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCAS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITHIN
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCAS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY, AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN
WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ509.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ501-505.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>534-536>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-536>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP/EST
AVIATION...KJP/EST
MARINE...KJP/EST
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