344
FXUS61 KLWX 151930
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
- 2)A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
- 3)SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
FRIGID TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WEST OF I-95 STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ON AND OFF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE ALLEGHENIES WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM. CONDITIONS DRY OUT
OVERNIGHT AS GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. BLOWING
SNOW IN THE ALLEGHENIES COULD RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST WITH THOSE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE METROS STAYING IN THE LOW 20S. HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY
WINDS WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM -10 IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN MARYLAND. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN GRANT AND WESTERN
PENDLETON COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME, UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALLEGHENIES WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. FURTHER
EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING BELOW OR RIGHT AT FREEZING
WITH A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S, LEADING TO PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO RAIN LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE ALLEGHENIES AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY FRIGID TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IS THIS PIVOTS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA. IT WILL THEN
PIVOT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS PRETTY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WITH PLENTY OF MODEL
CONSENSUS REGARDING THE OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN.
HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS, AND RESULTING
SURFACE LOW IS STILL A BIT IN FLUX. THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE DID ALL
COME TO A BIT OF A BETTER AGREEMENT, KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST VA AND SOUTHERN MD. HOWEVER, RECENT RUNS (06Z AND
00Z) HAVE HAD SOME SUBTLE SHIFTS WEST AT TIMES, DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. THIS LENDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY, AS A 50 MILE SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THAT REGION. AS OF
NOW, THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW FOR OUR AREA, AT LEAST
FOR THOSE THAT DO GET SNOW, WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF SNOWFALL IS JUST STILL VERY
UNCLEAR.
THEREAFTER, FRIGID COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WITH COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
ALLEGHENIES AND BLUE RIDGE, AND POSSIBLE SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
WELL. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS (NEAR
TO BELOW 0 IN THE MOUNTAINS) AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
WHILE NO RECORDS LOOK TO BE IN JEOPARDY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER THUS FAR.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
SLIGHTLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNDER DRY WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT BRINGS PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY, WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES LINGER BELOW
FREEZING, SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM AND RAIN BECOMES THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST AROUND 15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY SUNDAY WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
EVENING, EXCEPT AT MRB WHERE CHANCES ARE BELOW 20% AT THIS TIME.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM, SO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY
FOR UPDATES.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ON MONDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED. WINDS SURGE OVERNIGHT, WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
FROM 6PM THIS EVENING TO 6AM FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME,
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
PRIMARILY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS INCREASE DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW, GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND A PASSING SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE
SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA. SNOW IS POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE MIDDLE TO LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC.
GUSTY W WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ509.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ501-505.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>534-536>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-536>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535.
DISCUSSION...AVS/CJL
AVIATION...AVS/CJL
MARINE...AVS/CJL
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