847
FXUS61 KLWX 161432
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
932 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING, AND NO CHANGES TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, CLOSELY ASSESSING
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
SATURDAY IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST MARYLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2) MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SOME SNOW POTENTIAL
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
SWING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST US, OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WE DON'T
ANTICIPATED MUCH, IF ANY, SNOWFALL TO THE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES, THE ALLEGHENIES COULD ENCOUNTER A FEW INCHES IN
PLACES WITH THIS LATEST ARCTIC PUSH. THERE WILL BE A STRONG AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE HARBORING SUCH ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL PUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAKE A SURGE ALL THE WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S WIDESPREAD WITH SOME TEENS AND 20S IN
THE ALLEGHENIES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE
LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE ALL THE WAY TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING; THUS, MAKING OUR WIND CHILL VALUES REACH THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON MONDAY, BUT DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND TEENS
TO 20S BELOW ZERO FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE ARCTIC AIR WILL HOLD IN PLACE ON TUESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER THAN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, A MODIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP.
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM HIGHS IN THE 20S
ON TUESDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ON WEDNESDAY TO
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY. ALL THREE DAYS WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-JANUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SOME SNOW
POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO A STRUNG OUT UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WAA ON THE FRONT END OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BUMP INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT
ALL SNOW. LOW FROUDE NUMBERS AND A SOUTH-OF-WEST LOW-LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION MEANS THAT AREAS OF WESTERN GRANT AND WESTERN GARRETT
COUNTIES ARE MOST FAVORED FOR SNOW, BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY
BE BLOCKED BY HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE
CONFINED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO W GRANT/W GARRETT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING, WITH
THE STEADIEST SNOW MOST LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
CROSSES AND LIFT OVERLAPS THE DGZ SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING DEPENDING
ON JUST HOW MUCH LIFT/MOISTURE IS LEFT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
END TIME OF THE ADVISORY AS WELL AS SOUTHWARD EXTENT.
FARTHER TO THE EAST, FGEN COULD RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT
TRANSIENT (BUT NOTABLE IN STRENGTH). TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
READILY THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND EAST OF US-15. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTH/NORTHEAST MD SATURDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL TEMPS AND VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO A DUSTING IN MOST AREAS, IF AT ANY
ACCUMULATION OCCURS AT ALL. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (POSSIBLY A BIT MORE) IS ALONG PARR'S
RIDGE TO THE MD/PA BORDER, AND FROM THE CATOCTINS TO AROUND THE
HAGERSTOWN AREA. WILL BE ASSESSING THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL FORECAST UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON.
BEYOND SATURDAY IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS TRICKY. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS PIVOTS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON A NEUTRAL TILT.
MID/UPPER JET FORCING WITH HINTS OF FGEN IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
LIKELY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
BUT THE LACK OF A STURDIER AND MORE CONSISTENT CONNECTION TO A
MOISTURE SOURCE MAY MEAN THAT PRECIPITATION STRUGGLES TO DEVELOP
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PULLS OFFSHORE. AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE/CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95, CLOSEST TO
THE DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE.
NOT ONLY DO SUBTLE BUT MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST
THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TRACK, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES SOME BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY THAT COULD COMPLICATE P-TYPE OR AT LEAST ACCUMULATION
EFFICIENCY. GIVEN THE PATTERN, I HAVE A FEELING THE OUTCOME MAY
LEAN TOWARD THE AIGFS/ECMWF-AIFS/EPS- AIFS WHICH IS NOTABLY
FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF/EPS REMAINS
STUBBORNLY FLATTER/OFFSHORE/DRIER. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE NBM FALLS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN, AND GIVEN NO
CLEAR WINNER BEYOND A HUNCH AT THIS POINT, DID NOT CHANGE POPS
OR QPF FROM THE NBM FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME SHIFTS ARE LIKELY, SO
REFINEMENT WILL BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT MAY BRING A RIBBON OF PRECIP TO THE AREA IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE HAS LOCALIZED
MINOR SNOW OR EVEN ICE ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH THE SMALL AND
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THIS FEATURE MAKES IT HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACTLY WHERE (OR IF) THERE WILL BE ANY IMPACTS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY, WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. WINDS MAY TURN
BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AGAIN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS
LOW COULD BRUSH EASTERN TAF SITES WITH SOME SNOW, SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT.
VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT THE TERMINALS. THERE
COULD BE A PASSING FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER NEAR MRB OR CHO BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AND
BECOMING GUSTY. WINDS WILL BE LESS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
MARINE
SEEING A FEW SPORADIC WIND GUSTS OF 18-20 KNOTS, BUT THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH NOON. THEN, WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
LIKELY REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNDAY (THOUGH A BRIEF
SHIFT TO NORTH IS POSSIBLE). LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE
SUNDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX, ESPECIALLY NEAR
SOUTHERN MD.
WIND SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND A PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MONDAY. WINDS COULD GUST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND
WILL BECOME MORE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THEN TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LESS IN INTENSITY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ509.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ501.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-
536.
DISCUSSION...KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF
MARINE...KLW/DHOF
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