938
FXUS61 KLWX 240156 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD INITIALLY
DUE TO DELAY IN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS STARTING SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- 2) FRIGID TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- 3) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
24/00Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE 925 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WERE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER (OFF BY 6C AT 850 MB) AT IAD WHEN
COMPARED TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS, BUT WERE
INITIALIZED WELL AT THE OTHER REGIONAL UPPER AIR SITES LIKE PIT
AND RNK. THIS WAS LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE ARCTIC FRONT BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED CROSSING THE AREA COMPARED TO FORECASTS
FROM 24 HRS AGO, BUT IT HAS NOW CLEARED MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR ST. MARY'S COUNTY. FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, I HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD AS THEY WERE INITIALLY TOO COLD. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS VERYFING CLOSE TO THE NBM 90TH AND 95TH
PERCENTILES WHILE THE SFC DEWPOINTS WERE CLOSE TO THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE. DESPITE THIS UPWARD TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENT FOR
TONIGHT, APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS STILL SHOW VALUES DROPPING
AROUND OR BELOW ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS AND NEGATIVE TEENS IN
WESTERN MARYLAND, BUT REACHING THOSE THRESHOLDS AT A LATER TIME
TONIGHT. WE'LL SEE IF THE 00Z MODELS CAN CORRECT TO THESE
ERRORS IN INITIALIZATION LATER TONIGHT.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS REALLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM, SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
EVENING.
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, AS
THINGS ARE PRETTY MUCH THE SAME IN THAT DEPARTMENT AS WE SAW
WITH LAST NIGHT'S MODEL GUIDANCE. A BROAD 1.5-2.5" OF QPF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION (MORE IN THE SE, LESS IN THE NW).
NOW, THE HARD PART IS GETTING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE RIGHT, AND
THAT IS WHERE THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. NO
MATTER WHAT PRECIPITATION TYPE YOU SEE, THIS WILL BE A HIGH-
IMPACT WINTER STORM FOR ALL. AT THE SURFACE, THIS SEEMS LIKE A
PERFECT SETUP FOR SNOW, WITH A STRONG (1050 MB) HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH FUNNELING IN ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE
PROBLEMS START ALOFT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR
SOUTH WILL BRING IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.
WHILE THIS EVENT WILL START AS A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
(POTENTIALLY 1-2"/HR AT TIMES) OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, A POTENT WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION
MOST LOCALES TO SLEET BY MID-MORNING. NOW, THIS WILL BE VERY
HEAVY SLEET AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE AFTERNOON, SO EVEN
THE SLEET ACCUMULATIONS COULD AMOUNT TO A FEW INCHES. HENCE, THE
STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST YOU WILL SEE ON WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER
WILL BE SHOWING THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET. THESE SLEET
TOTALS COULD HARSHLY CUT INTO SNOW TOTALS, EVEN FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST, SO IT IS ESSENTIAL TO LOOK AT ALL
PROBABILITIES (10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE FORECASTS) ON THE
WEBPAGE AS WELL FOR YOUR PLANNING PURPOSES. THE FURTHER SOUTH
YOU LOOK DURING THIS STORM, THE MORE LIKELIHOOD OF ENCOUNTERING
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW, THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WOULD BE EAST
OF I-95, AND ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE WARM
NOSE STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY (7-8 DEG C) ALOFT. GIVEN HOW COLD
THE AIR MASS IS BELOW THE WARM NOSE HOWEVER, SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN THERE IS, VERSUS THOSE DROPLETS
REFREEZING IN THE COLD LAYER BACK INTO SLEET. BUT FOR NOW THOSE
DETAILS WERE JUST A BIT TOO SPECIFIC, AND I'D LIKE TO SEE A BIT
MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE BEFORE LOWERING TOTALS FROM
I-95 WESTWARD. I SAY THIS JUST TO BRING UP THE ENTIRE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES, AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPES.
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS LOOK TO START AROUND 15-18:1 WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA, WHILE THEN TRENDING DOWN
TOWARD 7-10:1 SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON (LOWER WHERE
SOME MIXING OCCURS). A PENDING DRY SLOT COULD ALSO PLAY INTO
AMOUNTS AS WELL. SNOW SHOULD BE FLUFFY IN NATURE, PARTICULARLY
WITHIN THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION CONVEYOR BELT SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SOME CRUSTINESS OF THIS SNOWPACK GIVEN ANY MIXING THAT
MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL LINGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR AND EAST OF I-95.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS IS ACROSS NORTHERN MD AND OVER VA NEAR AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CHANCES FOR A FOOT OF SNOW REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UP TO NORTHERN MD. FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, MIXING MAY ULTIMATELY PUT A LID ON JUST HOW HIGH
SNOWFALL TOTALS GET, THOUGH LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ AND THEREFORE
SNOWFALL RATES PRIOR TO ANY MIXING LOOK IMPRESSIVE.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ALONGSIDE PROLONGED VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES PRESENTS A UNIQUE AND SIGNIFICANT RISK TO LIFE
AND PROPERTY ACROSS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION.
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AT WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER FOR
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE PREPARATIONS
FOR THE STORM. THIS INCLUDES GETTING ANY NECESSARY GROCERIES OR
MEDICINES THAT YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ACCESS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ANY POTENTIAL CLOSURE. HAVE AN EMERGENCY
KIT IN THE CAR INCLUDING EXTRA BATTERIES, A FLASHLIGHT, AND
BLANKET JUST IN CASE YOU GET STRANDED. MAKE SURE TO REFUEL OR
CHARGE YOUR CAR BEFORE THE STORM HITS. CHECK ON ELDERLY FRIENDS,
FAMILY, AND NEIGHBORS AND DON'T FORGET ABOUT PETS OR LIVESTOCK
DURING THIS PROLONGED COLD PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FRIGID TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH. LOOKING ALOFT, A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EAST COAST NEST WEEK, BRINGING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS AND FRIGID
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF A WINTER STORM,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO 20S
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS EACH NIGHT. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WIND
CHILLS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. WINDS GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING EXTREME COLD WARNING
CRITERIA. IN THE ALLEGHENIES, WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20 TO -30 ARE
POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST, WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 AND -20 ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR HAVING WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 0 AND -10.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING, THE GFS, EURO, AND CANADIAN ALL HAVE
QPF ON THURSDAY. GIVEN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. IF THIS THREAT
MATERIALIZES, A LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTS OF 20
TO PERHAPS 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RELATION TO A HIGH IMPACT MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z/7PM SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z/1PM SUNDAY
WITH SOME MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS SOUTH/EAST OF DCA. PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY END
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1AM MONDAY. PLAN FOR TRAVEL DELAYS AND
CANCELLATIONS THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A LENGTHY PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS, THE WINTER STORM WILL
GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT.
COLD WILL LEAD TO SOME FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS APPROACH GALE-FORCE. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT. THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO DROP WATER LEVELS A
GOOD BIT TONIGHT, WITH LOW WATER ADVISORIES LIKELY BEING
NEEDED.
GUSTY WINDS AND FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A MAJOR WINTER STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH SCA
CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. WINDS WILL BE GREATEST ON MONDAY,
GUSTING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GALE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS FOR MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL SCA'S MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS WINDS NEAR CRITERIA
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT 1 TO 2 FT
BELOW MLLW SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY EXTEND THROUGH MONDAY AS NW
WINDS STRENGTHEN. A GRADUAL RETURN TO NORMAL WATER LEVELS IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE JANUARY 24-27,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***SATURDAY, JANUARY 24TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 18F (1948) 3F (1963)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 21F (2014)! -2F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1948) 1F (1963)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 21F (2014)+ 4F (1963)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 13F (1948) -4F (1963)+
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 23F (2014)+! 5F (1963)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 18F (1948) 2F (1963)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 12F (1936) -5F (1963)+
***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 16F (1897) 3F (1935)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 18F (1987) -5F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1987)+ 0F (1897)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 20F (2004)+ 8F (1961)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 16F (2004)+ -4F (1936)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 19F (2004)+ 5F (1948)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 19F (1961) 3F (1987)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (2004) -15F (1935)
***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 17F (1961) 5F (1948)+
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 21F (1966) 3F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1961) 2F (1961)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 19F (1961) 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 12F (1961) -10F (1948)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 13F (1961) 9F (1922)!
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 18F (1961) 5F (1905)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (1961) -12F (1948)
***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 22F (1961) 6F (1935)!
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 22F (2003) -9F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 21F (1918)! 3F (1987)!
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 22F (1961)! 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 17F (1971) -6F (1987)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 18F (1961) 0F (1982)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 22F (1961) 5F (1927)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 17F (1907)! -10F (1987)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DCZ001.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR DCZ001.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
008-011-013-014-016>018-501>510.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
036>040-050-051-053>057-501>508-526-527.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ028-030-031-040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-
526-527.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ503.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ025>027-029-036>039-504-507-508.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
055-501>506.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ050>053-504.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ501-503-505.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ055-502-506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
535-536-538>540.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ530.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
537-541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/CJL/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/CJL/CPB
MARINE...AVS/CJL/CPB
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