222
FXUS61 KLWX 242022
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
322 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED REMOVING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL COLD POCKET IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SMALL CHANCE FOR A GLAZE OF ICE REMAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY, ICE TOTALS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
I-95 WERE SLIGHTLY REDUCED WHERE SLEET IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
THAN FREEZING RAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- 2) FRIGID TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
- 3) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
A BROAD 1.4-2" OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION (MORE IN
THE SE, LESS IN THE NW). SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS LOOK TO START
AROUND 15-18:1 WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA,
WHILE THEN TRENDING DOWN TOWARD 7-10:1 SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON (LOWER WHERE SOME MIXING OCCURS). A PENDING DRY SLOT
COULD ALSO PLAY INTO AMOUNTS AS WELL. SNOW SHOULD BE FLUFFY IN
NATURE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION CONVEYOR
BELT SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME CRUSTINESS OF THIS SNOWPACK
GIVEN ANY MIXING THAT MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT HEADING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, THE WINTER STORM WILL MAKE ALL
AREAS ALL SNOW FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS, AT LEAST, STARTING
SATURDAY EVENING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WE INTRODUCE SLEET MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT BETWEEN 3AM AND 6AM
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MIX WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TO WHERE ALL AREAS, EXCEPT FOR WESTERN AND WEST-
CENTRAL MARYLAND, AND THE HIGH COUNTRY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA,
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET BETWEEN 6AM AND 9AM. IT IS
DURING THIS PARTICULAR WINDOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN FREEZING
RAIN GETS INTRODUCED TO THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT ALSO SPREADS NORTH
TO REACH I-66, VA 7, AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AS YOU CAN SEE, THIS MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL HAVE HIGH IMPACTS
WITH THE SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES
THAT IT BRINGS TO OUR REGION. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WIDESPREAD, THEN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SLEET ON
TOP OF THE SNOW, AND FINALLY A THIN SHEET OR LIGHT TO MODEST
ACCUMULATION OF ICE. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AND ALL OF NEXT WEEK WILL ENSURE THAT THIS WINTRY MESS
WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON. ON DAYS, WHERE WE HAVE
SOME SUNSHINE, EXPECT A QUICK REFREEZE ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL LINGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR AND EAST OF I-95.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS IS ACROSS NORTHERN MD AND OVER VA NEAR AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FOOT PLUS OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UP TO NORTHERN MD. FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, MIXING MAY ULTIMATELY PUT A LID ON JUST HOW HIGH
SNOWFALL TOTALS GET, THOUGH LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ AND THEREFORE
SNOWFALL RATES PRIOR TO ANY MIXING LOOK IMPRESSIVE.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ALONGSIDE PROLONGED VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES PRESENTS A UNIQUE AND SIGNIFICANT RISK TO LIFE
AND PROPERTY ACROSS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION.
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AT WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER FOR
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE PREPARATIONS
FOR THE STORM. THIS INCLUDES GETTING ANY NECESSARY GROCERIES OR
MEDICINES THAT YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ACCESS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ANY POTENTIAL CLOSURE. HAVE AN EMERGENCY
KIT IN THE CAR INCLUDING EXTRA BATTERIES, A FLASHLIGHT, AND
BLANKET JUST IN CASE YOU GET STRANDED. MAKE SURE TO REFUEL OR
CHARGE YOUR CAR BEFORE THE STORM HITS. CHECK ON ELDERLY FRIENDS,
FAMILY, AND NEIGHBORS AND DON'T FORGET ABOUT PETS OR LIVESTOCK
DURING THIS PROLONGED COLD PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FRIGID TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING ALOFT, A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST COAST NEST WEEK,
BRINGING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS EACH NIGHT. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WIND
CHILLS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. WINDS GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING EXTREME COLD
WARNING CRITERIA. IN THE ALLEGHENIES, WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20
TO -30 ARE POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST, WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 AND
-20 ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR HAVING WIND CHILLS BETWEEN
0 AND -10. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MIDWEEK.
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING, THE GFS, EURO, AND CANADIAN ALL HAVE
QPF ON THURSDAY. GIVEN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. IF THIS THREAT
MATERIALIZES, A LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. CONDITIONS BEGIN
DETERIORATING FIRST AT KCHO AND SPREAD N/NE AS LIGHT SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AS SNOW BECOMES HEAVIER OVERNIGHT,
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN VLIFR AND LIFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW LIKELY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW AT KMRB WHILE
MIXED PRECIPITATION MIXES IN AT OTHER AIRPORTS. SLEET BEGINS MIXING
IN FIRST AT KCHO AROUND 12-14Z WITH THE METRO AIRPORTS MIXING IN
BETWEEN 16-18Z WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMING PRIMARILY SLEET IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, KCHO WILL HAVE A GREATER RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FREEZING RAIN
RISK CONTINUES AT KDCA, KIAD, KBWI, AND KMTN SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AFTER 00Z.
PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1AM MONDAY. PLAN
FOR TRAVEL DELAYS AND CANCELLATIONS THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A LENGTHY PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS, THE WINTER STORM WILL
GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
GUSTY WINDS AND FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A MAJOR WINTER STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED.
NORTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH SCA
CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. WINDS WILL BE GREATEST ON MONDAY,
GUSTING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GALE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS FOR MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL SCA'S MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS WINDS NEAR CRITERIA IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT 1 TO 2 FT BELOW MLLW
THIS MORNING AND MAY EXTEND THROUGH MONDAY AS NW WINDS STRENGTHEN.
A GRADUAL RETURN TO NORMAL WATER LEVELS IS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE JANUARY 24-27,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***SATURDAY, JANUARY 24TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 18F (1948) 3F (1963)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 21F (2014)! -2F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1948) 1F (1963)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 21F (2014)+ 4F (1963)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 13F (1948) -4F (1963)+
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 23F (2014)+! 5F (1963)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 18F (1948) 2F (1963)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 12F (1936) -5F (1963)+
***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 16F (1897) 3F (1935)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 18F (1987) -5F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1987)+ 0F (1897)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 20F (2004)+ 8F (1961)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 16F (2004)+ -4F (1936)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 19F (2004)+ 5F (1948)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 19F (1961) 3F (1987)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (2004) -15F (1935)
***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 17F (1961) 5F (1948)+
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 21F (1966) 3F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1961) 2F (1961)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 19F (1961) 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 12F (1961) -10F (1948)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 13F (1961) 9F (1922)!
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 18F (1961) 5F (1905)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (1961) -12F (1948)
***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 22F (1961) 6F (1935)!
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 22F (2003) -9F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 21F (1918)! 3F (1987)!
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 22F (1961)! 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 17F (1971) -6F (1987)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 18F (1961) 0F (1982)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 22F (1961) 5F (1927)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 17F (1907)! -10F (1987)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ028-030-031-040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-
506-526-527.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ025>027-029-036>039-504-507-508.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-504.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ055-502-506.
MARINE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ530.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/CJL/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/CJL/CPB
MARINE...AVS/KLW/CJL/CPB
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