209
FXUS61 KLWX 250110
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
810 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL, THE FORECAST HASN'T CHANGED MUCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS IN THE CLIMO-
FAVORED AREAS IN WESTERN MD INTO EASTERN WV. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN IMPACTS HOWEVER, SO MOST THINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THINGS HAVE MOVED FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE PHASE INTO NOWCASTING
AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, SO WILL DISCUSS SOME OF THOSE
DETAILS BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- 2) FRIGID TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
- 3) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
EVENING UPDATE: LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT SURFACE AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THINGS ARE LARGELY PLAYING OUT
AS ANTICIPATED. STRONG (1040MB) HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. MEANWHILE, OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A VERY SHARP
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE GULF COAST. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS
OVERRUNNING THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY
UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ARE ALREADY REPORTING SNOW
ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND UP THE I-81 CORRIDOR AS FAR NORTH
AS STAUNTON OR SO. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURRING FOR THE TIME
BEING, BUT FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER,
ALREADY SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON LESSER TRAVELED ROADWAYS.
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WILL MEAN ALMOST IMMEDIATE
ACCUMULATIONS ONCE THINGS REALLY PICK UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. EXTREMELY DRY AIR IS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE, WITH DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL AROUND 20-25 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND THROUGH THIS LAYER, BUT AREAS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA ACTUALLY SATURATED A BIT QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED, SO EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
THERMODYNAMICALLY, THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING. IF ANYTHING, PERHAPS SOME GUIDANCE
LEANS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN TERMS OF A TRANSITIONING TO SLEET
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, NOT BUYING INTO THAT JUST YET, AND
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z GUIDANCE ROLL IN WITH THE LATEST UPPER
AIR DATA AROUND THE COUNTRY. COULD BE SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH,
AS A SLOWER ONSET OF SLEET IN ANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION COULD MAKE
A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID FROM HERE
ONWARD, SO READ THAT BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A BROAD 1.4-2" OF QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION (MORE IN THE SE, LESS IN THE NW). SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS LOOK TO START AROUND 15-18:1 WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE AREA, WHILE THEN TRENDING DOWN TOWARD 7-10:1
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON (LOWER WHERE SOME MIXING
OCCURS). A PENDING DRY SLOT COULD ALSO PLAY INTO AMOUNTS AS
WELL. SNOW SHOULD BE FLUFFY IN NATURE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
INITIAL WARM ADVECTION CONVEYOR BELT SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CRUSTINESS OF THIS SNOWPACK GIVEN ANY MIXING THAT MAY OCCUR AS
THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, THE WINTER STORM WILL MAKE ALL
AREAS ALL SNOW FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS, AT LEAST, STARTING
SATURDAY EVENING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WE INTRODUCE SLEET MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT BETWEEN 3AM AND 6AM
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MIX WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TO WHERE ALL AREAS, EXCEPT FOR WESTERN AND WEST-
CENTRAL MARYLAND, AND THE HIGH COUNTRY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA,
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET BETWEEN 6AM AND 9AM. IT IS
DURING THIS PARTICULAR WINDOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN FREEZING
RAIN GETS INTRODUCED TO THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT ALSO SPREADS NORTH
TO REACH I-66, VA 7, AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AS YOU CAN SEE, THIS MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL HAVE HIGH IMPACTS
WITH THE SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES
THAT IT BRINGS TO OUR REGION. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WIDESPREAD, THEN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SLEET ON
TOP OF THE SNOW, AND FINALLY A THIN SHEET OR LIGHT TO MODEST
ACCUMULATION OF ICE. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AND ALL OF NEXT WEEK WILL ENSURE THAT THIS WINTRY MESS
WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON. ON DAYS, WHERE WE HAVE
SOME SUNSHINE, EXPECT A QUICK REFREEZE ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL LINGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR AND EAST OF I-95.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS IS ACROSS NORTHERN MD AND OVER VA NEAR AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FOOT PLUS OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UP TO NORTHERN MD. FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, MIXING MAY ULTIMATELY PUT A LID ON JUST HOW HIGH
SNOWFALL TOTALS GET, THOUGH LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ AND THEREFORE
SNOWFALL RATES PRIOR TO ANY MIXING LOOK IMPRESSIVE.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ALONGSIDE PROLONGED VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES PRESENTS A UNIQUE AND SIGNIFICANT RISK TO LIFE
AND PROPERTY ACROSS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION.
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AT WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER FOR
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE PREPARATIONS
FOR THE STORM. THIS INCLUDES GETTING ANY NECESSARY GROCERIES OR
MEDICINES THAT YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ACCESS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ANY POTENTIAL CLOSURE. HAVE AN EMERGENCY
KIT IN THE CAR INCLUDING EXTRA BATTERIES, A FLASHLIGHT, AND
BLANKET JUST IN CASE YOU GET STRANDED. MAKE SURE TO REFUEL OR
CHARGE YOUR CAR BEFORE THE STORM HITS. CHECK ON ELDERLY FRIENDS,
FAMILY, AND NEIGHBORS AND DON'T FORGET ABOUT PETS OR LIVESTOCK
DURING THIS PROLONGED COLD PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FRIGID TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S STORM SYSTEM. LOOKING ALOFT, A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST COAST NEST WEEK,
BRINGING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS EACH NIGHT. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WIND
CHILLS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. WINDS GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING EXTREME COLD
WARNING CRITERIA. IN THE ALLEGHENIES, WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20
TO -30 ARE POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST, WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10
AND -20 ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR HAVING WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 0 AND -10. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MIDWEEK.
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING, THE GFS, EURO, AND CANADIAN ALL HAVE
QPF ON THURSDAY. GIVEN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. IF THIS THREAT
MATERIALIZES, A LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THUS FAR. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
DETERIORATING FIRST AT KCHO AND SPREAD N/NE AS LIGHT SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AS SNOW BECOMES HEAVIER OVERNIGHT,
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN VLIFR AND LIFR WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW LIKELY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW AT
KMRB WHILE MIXED PRECIPITATION MIXES IN AT OTHER AIRPORTS. SLEET
BEGINS MIXING IN FIRST AT KCHO AROUND 12-14Z WITH THE METRO
AIRPORTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 16-18Z WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
BECOMING PRIMARILY SLEET IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
KCHO WILL HAVE A GREATER RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN
MIXING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FREEZING RAIN RISK CONTINUES AT
KDCA, KIAD, KBWI, AND KMTN SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
JUST AFTER 00Z.
PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1AM MONDAY. PLAN
FOR TRAVEL DELAYS AND CANCELLATIONS THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A LENGTHY PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS, THE WINTER STORM WILL
GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
GUSTY WINDS AND FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A MAJOR WINTER STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED.
NORTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH SCA
CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. WINDS WILL BE GREATEST ON MONDAY,
GUSTING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GALE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS FOR MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL SCA'S MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS WINDS NEAR CRITERIA IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT 1 TO 2 FT
BELOW MLLW THIS MORNING AND MAY EXTEND THROUGH MONDAY AS NW
WINDS STRENGTHEN. A GRADUAL RETURN TO NORMAL WATER LEVELS IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE JANUARY 24-27,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***SATURDAY, JANUARY 24TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 18F (1948) 3F (1963)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 21F (2014)! -2F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1948) 1F (1963)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 21F (2014)+ 4F (1963)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 13F (1948) -4F (1963)+
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 23F (2014)+! 5F (1963)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 18F (1948) 2F (1963)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 12F (1936) -5F (1963)+
***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 16F (1897) 3F (1935)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 18F (1987) -5F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1987)+ 0F (1897)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 20F (2004)+ 8F (1961)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 16F (2004)+ -4F (1936)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 19F (2004)+ 5F (1948)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 19F (1961) 3F (1987)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (2004) -15F (1935)
***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 17F (1961) 5F (1948)+
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 21F (1966) 3F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1961) 2F (1961)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 19F (1961) 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 12F (1961) -10F (1948)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 13F (1961) 9F (1922)!
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 18F (1961) 5F (1905)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (1961) -12F (1948)
***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 22F (1961) 6F (1935)!
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 22F (2003) -9F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 21F (1918)! 3F (1987)!
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 22F (1961)! 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 17F (1971) -6F (1987)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 18F (1961) 0F (1982)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 22F (1961) 5F (1927)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 17F (1907)! -10F (1987)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ028-030-031-040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-
506-526-527.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-
036>039-504-507-508.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-504.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ055-502-506.
MARINE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ534-
537-542-543.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
536.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/CJL/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/CJL/CPB
MARINE...AVS/KLW/CJL/CPB
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