584
FXUS61 KLWX 251540
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH THE 12Z KIAD SOUNDING LEADING THE WAY IN ACKNOWLEDGING THE
WARM NOSE, PRECIPITATION TYPES HAVE QUICKLY SWITCHED FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS SNOW HAS SHIFTED TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO ALL SLEET.
AS SUCH, THE SNOWFALL FORECAST HAS BEEN DECREASED GIVEN THE
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SLEET. HOWEVER,
THIS REMAINS A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER EVENT GIVEN THE CONTINUED MIX
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES AND FRIGID CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- 2) FRIGID TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
- 3) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS THE 12Z KIAD SOUNDING AS WELL AS RECENT NAM FORECAST
SOLUTIONS, THE WARM NOSE HAS SWIFTLY LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS AROUND 2 TO 3 HOURS AHEAD OF THE INITIAL
FORECAST PACKAGE SO HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST. THE KLWX RING OF REDUCED CORRELATION
COEFFICIENTS (CC) CLEARLY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION POINT (ALL SLEET
VS. SNOW/SLEET MIX). THIS CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE HARFORD/CECIL
COUNTY BORDER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND TO JUST WEST OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. AS THE EARLIER SNOWFALL CONSISTED OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 10:1, SLEET OFTEN PERHAPS 2:1 OR 3:1.
CONSEQUENTLY, THIS RESULTS IN THE REDUCED SNOW TOTALS WHICH HAS
YIELDED A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TO SOME OF THE LOWER PROJECTED
RANGES.
AS WE GET INTO THE LATER DAYLIGHT HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET, A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET COULD BECOME MORE OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING RAIN, THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE ASPECT ENTERING INTO THIS
EVENING. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS IS ACROSS WESTERN MD. AROUND A FOOT OF
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA, WHILE A BROAD 6 TO 10
INCHES (LOCALLY LOWER WELL SOUTH OF I-66/U.S. 50).
THIS MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL HAVE HIGH IMPACTS WITH THE SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES THAT IT BRINGS TO
OUR REGION. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
WIDESPREAD, THEN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SLEET ON TOP OF THE SNOW,
AND FINALLY A THIN SHEET OR LIGHT TO MODEST ACCUMULATION OF
ICE. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND ALL OF
NEXT WEEK WILL ENSURE THAT THIS WINTRY MESS WILL NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON. ON DAYS, WHERE WE HAVE SOME SUNSHINE,
EXPECT A QUICK REFREEZE ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL LINGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR AND EAST OF I-95.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ALONGSIDE PROLONGED VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES PRESENTS A UNIQUE AND SIGNIFICANT RISK TO LIFE
AND PROPERTY ACROSS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION.
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AT WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER FOR
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
MAINTAIN VERY COLD, WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO NIGHTS LIKELY. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY EVERY NIGHT THIS WEEK WITH MONDAY NIGHT LIKELY
BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT WHEN EXTREME COLD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. NO
RELIEF IS IN SIGHT UNTIL THE CALENDAR TURNS INTO FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MIDWEEK.
A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE
WED NIGHT/EARLY THU TIME PERIOD. WHILE MODELS ONLY PREDICT TRACE TO
0.02 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM, THIS AMOUNT
FALLING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS MAY
CAUSE RESULT IN SLRS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 1 ASSUMING THE SNOW IS ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND IN SUCH A DRY AIR MASS. AT THE VERY LEAST, A
SPECIAL COMMUTING HAZARD STATEMENT LOOKS LIKELY AND IN THE WORST
CASE A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH CONTINUED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. WITH AN EARLIER
ONSET OF SLEET INTO THE PICTURE, ALL TERMINALS HAVE SHIFTED OVER
TO SLEET AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, KCHO WILL HAVE A GREATER RISK OF SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN MIXING INTO TONIGHT. THE FREEZING RAIN RISK
CONTINUES AT KDCA, KIAD, KBWI, AND KMTN TONIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR JUST AFTER 00Z.
PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1AM MONDAY. PLAN
FOR TRAVEL DELAYS AND CANCELLATIONS THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 35 KT ARE LIKELY MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM AND GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED; HENCE THE SCA THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY MONDAY WITH SCA CRITERIA WINDS
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. WINDS WILL BE GREATEST ON MONDAY, GUSTING
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY.
FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS LIKELY TODAY AND MONDAY. GALE WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS FOR MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL SCA'S MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS WINDS NEAR CRITERIA IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW MLLW
THROUGH MONDAY AS NW WINDS STRENGTHEN. A GRADUAL RETURN TO
NORMAL WATER LEVELS IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE JANUARY 25-27,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 16F (1897) 3F (1935)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 18F (1987) -5F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1987)+ 0F (1897)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 20F (2004)+ 8F (1961)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 16F (2004)+ -4F (1936)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 19F (2004)+ 5F (1948)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 19F (1961) 3F (1987)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (2004) -15F (1935)
***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 17F (1961) 5F (1948)+
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 21F (1966) 3F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1961) 2F (1961)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 19F (1961) 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 12F (1961) -10F (1948)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 13F (1961) 9F (1922)!
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 18F (1961) 5F (1905)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (1961) -12F (1948)
***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 22F (1961) 6F (1935)!
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 22F (2003) -9F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 21F (1918)! 3F (1987)!
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 22F (1961)! 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 17F (1971) -6F (1987)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 18F (1961) 0F (1982)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 22F (1961) 5F (1927)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 17F (1907)! -10F (1987)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-
011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-030-031-
040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-
036>039-504-507-508.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-504.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ055-502-506.
MARINE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ534>537-542-543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/KLW/CJL/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/KLW/CJL/CPB
MARINE...AVS/KLW/CJL/CPB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page