557
FXUS61 KLWX 252043
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GIVEN THE CONTINUED TREND OF SLEET BECOMING THE DOMINANT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPE, HAVE INCORPORATED THIS INTO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LESS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS SLEET
IS NOT AS EFFICIENT IN SNOW MEASUREMENTS (SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO
3:1 ON AVERAGE). OTHERWISE, TODAY'S TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN
BELOW THE FORECAST SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE (I.E., NBM 10TH PERCENTILE). GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE AREA
OF SNOW/ICE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S., FAVORED A COLDER FORECAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. LASTLY, THE
MID-WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS CERTAINLY SEEN A LARGE DOWNTICK
IN SNOWFALL COVERAGE. MORE THAN ANYTHING, IT IS MORE LIKELY TO
PROVIDE THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- 2) DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- 3) SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. ONE OF THE BIGGEST SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM NOSE. A SPECIAL
18Z IAD SOUNDING WAS LAUNCHED TO EVALUATE THIS AREA OF WARMING
ALOFT. AN AREA OF ABOVE FREEZING (0C) AIR WAS OBSERVED WITHIN
THE 800-700 MB LAYER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 3-4C. GIVEN
THIS ARTIFACT OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE, ANY THREAT FOR SNOW
WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIKELY RESTRICTED TO PORTIONS OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, THE SUB-FREEZING LAYER UNDERNEATH
THE WARM NOSE IS RATHER SUBSTANTIAL IN SIZE. WITH MOST AREAS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, FREEZING RAIN MAY NOT
IMPACT AS MANY LOCATIONS AS INITIALLY THOUGHT.
LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT THE FREEZING RAIN ASPECT OF THIS
FORECAST, WEATHER SPOTTERS HAVE NOTED SOME ICE ACCRETIONS OVER
FAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND AS WELL AS ACROSS WESTERN GARRETT COUNTY.
WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING ACTIVITY STRETCHING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS, SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY. THUS, AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SLEET LOOKS POSSIBLE
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES). IF THE REASONABLE
WORST CASE SCENARIO UNFOLDS, UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE COULD
ACCRETE ACROSS THESE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
WHILE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT, THE ACCOMPANYING WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY DOES END
LATE THIS EVENING (EXCEPT THE ALLEGHENIES). HOWEVER, GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE, SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SLEET, PERHAPS WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN
MIXED IN, WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING
OUT OF THE REGION BY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE, A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG/WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THIS MAY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK.
AS MENTIONED WITHIN KEY MESSAGE 1, VERY COLD AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH THE ONGOING WINTER STORM. WHILE MOST WINTRY EVENTS IN
THIS AREA HOVER CLOSE TO FREEZING, THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS NOT
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR. OVERALL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD, LIKELY CONTINUING
INTO EARLY FEBRUARY PER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DAY 6-10
OUTLOOK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY, BUT THIS COMES WITH A
BLUSTERY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGES FOR A
VERY COLD NIGHT ON MONDAY. DID LOWER THE FORECAST BY AROUND 2 TO
3 DEGREES GIVEN MODELS MAY NOT FULLY ENCAPSULATE THE CURRENT
SNOW/ICE PACK. EXTREME COLD WATCHES ARE IN PLACE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS FROM 7 PM MONDAY UNTIL 11
AM TUESDAY. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF -20F TO -25F ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH NEAR -35F ACROSS WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR WATCHES ELSEWHERE. REGARDLESS
OF HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE A NEAR
CERTAINTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. EVEN WITHOUT THE WIND,
FORECAST LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO NEAR 0F ALONG/WEST OF U.S. 15, WITH
READINGS JUST ABOVE 0F ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
THE NEXT ROUND OF FRIGID AIR COMES BEHIND THE MID-WEEK CLIPPER
SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
RUN BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S, WITH ALLEGHENY HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS PARTICULARLY COLD AS
THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST
WIND CHILLS AGAIN DROP TO BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
NEGATIVE TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID-
WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DURING
PREVIOUS DAYS, THE FORCING WAS MORE CONSOLIDATED VS. THE RECENT
SOLUTIONS THAT SPLIT THE SYSTEM INTO MULTIPLE AREAS OF
VORTICITY. AS A RESULT, THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR
TO BE ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LENGTHY RESTRICTIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TODAY GIVEN
THE IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM. VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO BOUNCE
AROUND BETWEEN ONE-HALF TO ONE MILE, OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO
ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. THIS IN RESPONSE TO LIGHT/MODERATE
SLEET THAT HAS LARGELY DOMINATED THE WEATHER SINCE THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE WAVERED BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR.
OVERALL, SLEET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH AROUND 23Z
BEFORE ENDING AS A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY ABATE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
AS A COASTAL SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK
IN STRENGTH ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME
RESIDUAL WIND LINGERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM YIELDS A
RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY LATE TUESDAY.
WEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. WINDS GUST UP TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE ON
THURSDAY, GUSTING 15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTH, A NORTHEASTERLY WIND REMAINS
BLUSTERY ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WHILE GOING INTO PORTIONS OF TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST. GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO LOWER PORTIONS
OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, GUSTS
UP TO 35 KNOTS OR SO ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO ISSUES WITH SOME FREEZING SPRAY GIVEN THE FRIGID
AIR AND ENHANCED WIND FIELDS.
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. SUB-ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WEST WINDS NEAR SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO SCA CRITERIA
ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW MLLW
THROUGH MONDAY AS NW WINDS STRENGTHEN. A GRADUAL RETURN TO
NORMAL WATER LEVELS IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE JANUARY 25-27,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 16F (1897) 3F (1935)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 18F (1987) -5F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1987)+ 0F (1897)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 20F (2004)+ 8F (1961)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 16F (2004)+ -4F (1936)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 19F (2004)+ 5F (1948)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 19F (1961) 3F (1987)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (2004) -15F (1935)
***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 17F (1961) 5F (1948)+
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 21F (1966) 3F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1961) 2F (1961)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 19F (1961) 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 12F (1961) -10F (1948)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 13F (1961) 9F (1922)!
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 18F (1961) 5F (1905)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (1961) -12F (1948)
***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 22F (1961) 6F (1935)!
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 22F (2003) -9F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 21F (1918)! 3F (1987)!
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 22F (1961)! 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 17F (1971) -6F (1987)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 18F (1961) 0F (1982)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 22F (1961) 5F (1927)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 17F (1907)! -10F (1987)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-
011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MDZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501-509-510.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-030-031-
040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ503-504-507-508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-
036>039-504-507-508.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-504.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ055-502-506.
MARINE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530-536.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ531-532-
538>540.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-
534-537-541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ534>537-542-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ535.
DISCUSSION...BRO
AVIATION...AVS/BRO
MARINE...AVS/BRO
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