138
FXUS61 KLWX 260228
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PERIOD OF HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TURNING COMPLETELY
DRY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF SNOW/ICE AND ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S., LEANING TOWARDS
ADJUSTING TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- 2) DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- 3) SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WHILE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT, WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END
(EXCEPT THE ALLEGHENIES). HOWEVER, GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE, SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AS IS EVIDENT ON THE
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.
ON THE BACK SIDE, A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THIS MAY ADD ANOTHER ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF SNOW. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE IN
THOSE AREAS UNTIL THE SNOW COMES TO AN END THERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK.
VERY COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER THE ONGOING WINTER STORM.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD, LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY FEBRUARY PER THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DAY 6-10 OUTLOOK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY, BUT THIS COMES WITH A
BLUSTERY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGES FOR A
VERY COLD NIGHT ON MONDAY. PLAN TO LOWER THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT, GIVEN THAT MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T SEEM
TO BE FULLY CAPTURING THE CURRENT SNOW/ICE PACK. EXTREME COLD
WATCHES ARE IN PLACE ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS FROM 7 PM MONDAY UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES OF -20F TO -25F ARE POSSIBLE, WITH NEAR -35F
ACROSS WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
NEED FOR WATCHES ELSEWHERE. REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS PLAYS OUT,
COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. EVEN WITHOUT THE WIND, FORECAST LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO NEAR
0F ALONG/WEST OF U.S. 15, WITH READINGS JUST ABOVE 0F ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.
THE NEXT ROUND OF FRIGID AIR COMES BEHIND THE MID-WEEK CLIPPER
SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
RUN BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S, WITH ALLEGHENY HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS PARTICULARLY COLD AS
THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST
WIND CHILLS AGAIN DROP TO BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
NEGATIVE TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID-
WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DURING
PREVIOUS DAYS, THE FORCING WAS MORE CONSOLIDATED VS. THE RECENT
SOLUTIONS THAT SPLIT THE SYSTEM INTO MULTIPLE AREAS OF
VORTICITY. AS A RESULT, THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR
TO BE ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END FOR THE TERMINALS, AS THE
WINTER STORM IS LARGELY COMING TO AN END. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY ABATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AS A COASTAL SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK
IN STRENGTH ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME
RESIDUAL WIND LINGERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM YIELDS A
RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY LATE TUESDAY.
WEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. WINDS GUST UP TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE ON
THURSDAY, GUSTING 15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST. GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO LOWER PORTIONS
OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTS OF
UP TO 35 KNOTS OR SO ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO ISSUES WITH SOME FREEZING SPRAY GIVEN THE FRIGID
AIR AND ENHANCED WIND FIELDS.
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. SUB-ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WEST WINDS NEAR SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO SCA CRITERIA
ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW MLLW
THROUGH MONDAY AS NW WINDS STRENGTHEN. A GRADUAL RETURN TO
NORMAL WATER LEVELS IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE JANUARY 25-27,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 16F (1897) 3F (1935)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 18F (1987) -5F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1987)+ 0F (1897)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 20F (2004)+ 8F (1961)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 16F (2004)+ -4F (1936)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 19F (2004)+ 5F (1948)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 19F (1961) 3F (1987)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (2004) -15F (1935)
***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 17F (1961) 5F (1948)+
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 21F (1966) 3F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1961) 2F (1961)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 19F (1961) 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 12F (1961) -10F (1948)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 13F (1961) 9F (1922)!
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 18F (1961) 5F (1905)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (1961) -12F (1948)
***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 22F (1961) 6F (1935)!
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 22F (2003) -9F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 21F (1918)! 3F (1987)!
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 22F (1961)! 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 17F (1971) -6F (1987)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 18F (1961) 0F (1982)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 22F (1961) 5F (1927)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 17F (1907)! -10F (1987)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-
011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MDZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501-509-510.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-030-031-
040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ503-504-507-508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-
036>039-504-507-508.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-504.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ055-502-506.
MARINE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530-536.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ531-532-538>540.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ531-532-
538>540.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-
534-537-541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ535.
DISCUSSION...BRO/CJL
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/CJL
MARINE...AVS/BRO/CJL
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