884
FXUS61 KLWX 270158
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
858 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN GARRETT AND WESTERN GRANT COUNTIES
WERE EXTENDED THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO ONGOING
ACCUMULATING SNOW, WHICH HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES. FROM THIS
POINT ON, THINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF, WITH AN INCH OR
LESS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ALSO,
NOTED SOME ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING THE NEXT POTENTIAL
WINTRY SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- 2) PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- 3) THE NEXT ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PERSISTENT EAST COAST TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATES TO OUR
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THAT UPPER LOW, MULTIPLE SHOTS OF
REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
VERY COLD AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES AREN'T FORECAST TO REACH FREEZING OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EACH NIGHT. SOME DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN BE POSSIBLE IF LOCATIONS ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND GO CALM.
WINDS EACH DAY AND NIGHT WILL ONLY MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
WINDS CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW ZERO EACH NIGHT, AND MAY
EVEN REACH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS CHILLS
WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND TEENS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, EACH DAY LOOKS
VERY COLD, BUT THE ABSOLUTE COLDEST DAYS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES OR EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, AND ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MID-WEEK.
WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN PLACE AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
TRACKING OFF TO OUR NORTH, UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF EACH DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE CONTINUED ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN THE
ALLEGHENIES, WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH 11 PM. AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVISORY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TOMORROW, LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY COLD PROFILES WITH MOST OF THE LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ. NOT
MUCH QPF IS EXPECTED, BUT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH (POTENTIALLY
GREATER THAN 20:1), WITH A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
IN THE ALLEGHENIES DURING THAT TIME.
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED AGAIN WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS JUNCTURE, THERE'S A
BIT MORE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL, WHILE OTHERS SHOW ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE ALLEGHENIES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE NEXT ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
A LARGE SCALE, NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME, A PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO
EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARDS THE GULF STATES. AS THESE
SYSTEMS PHASE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG OR NEAR
THE COAST. THE LOCATION OF THE PHASING WILL DETERMINE HOW CLOSE
TO THE COAST THE LOW IS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE PAINTING A
TYPICAL MILLER A TYPE NOR'EASTER THAT COULD BRING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ALONG SOME OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. COLD AIR
WON'T BE AN ISSUE WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS LEADING UP TO THE
WEEKEND (HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FRI/SAT) AND A
REINFORCING HIGH BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS VERY HIGH AT 5-6 DAYS OUT, BUT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW IN THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE 12Z EUROPEAN, GFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALL HAVE AROUND A
20-30PCT CHANCE FOR 3" OF SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE NBM
SPEAKS BEST TO THE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THIS SYSTEM,
WITH THE 19Z RUN CONTINUING A SIMILAR TREND TO THE EARLIER RUN,
WITH HIGH VARIABILITY. THE 19Z RUN CAME IN WITH AROUND 30-40PCT
CHANCE FOR 6" OF SNOW, AROUND 25PCT CHANCE FOR 12", AROUND 20PCT
CHANCE FOR 18", AND AROUND 10PCT CHANCE FOR 24". USE EXTREME
CAUTION IN THE COMING DAYS WHEN LOOKING AT ANY ONE GIVEN MODEL
SOLUTION. YES, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BIG SNOW, BUT THE NUMBERS
ABOVE ALSO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE THAT WE
GET VERY LITTLE SNOW, OR PERHAPS EVEN NONE AT ALL. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME, AND IT IS SIMPLY
TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. FOR
PERSPECTIVE, THE PRIMARY FEATURE AT PLAY TO MAKE THIS COME
TOGETHER IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS WILL THEN HAVE TO
TRAVERSE THE CONUS AND PERFECTLY PHASE WITH A PIECE OF UPPER-
LEVEL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CANADA. THIS HAS TO OCCUR IN A VERY
SPECIFIC WAY FOR THIS TO BRING US SNOWFALL, RATHER THAN ENDING
UP OFFSHORE. SO, UNTIL THESE FEATURES ARE BOTH DEVELOPED AND
OVER A WELL SAMPLED REGION, EXPECT MODEL GUIDANCE TO BOUNCE
AROUND SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE SETTLING ON A
SOLUTION BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY THE REGIONAL
MODELS WILL HAVE SOME OUTPUT THAT GOES INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR
NOW, TAKE NOTE OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR UPDATES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. ONCE ROADS HAVE HAD A CHANCE
TO CLEAR UP LATER THIS WEEK, TAKE TIME TO PREPARE YOUR WINTER
STORM PREPAREDNESS KITS, JUST IN CASE THIS WERE TO COME TO
FRUITION.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAY GUST
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, AND THEN TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK WITH WIND THE MAIN IMPACT TO
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER HAZARD IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GALES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WIDER
WATERS OF THE BAY, WITH SCAS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. LIGHTER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH LOW-END SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE WIDER WATERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ON THU. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY ON THU.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE JANUARY 25-27,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 22F (1961) 6F (1935)!
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 22F (2003) -9F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 21F (1918)! 3F (1987)!
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 22F (1961)! 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 17F (1971) -6F (1987)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 18F (1961) 0F (1982)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 22F (1961) 5F (1927)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 17F (1907)! -10F (1987)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501-509-
510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ509-510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ027>031-
038>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ025-026-
036-037-503-504-507-508.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
055-502-504.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
505-506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ501.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ531-532-
538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-532-
538>540.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-
534-537-541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
DISCUSSION...CJL/KJP/KRR
AVIATION...KJP/KRR
MARINE...KJP/KRR
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