838
FXUS61 KLWX 271457
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- 2) PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- 3) MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
SUBZERO WIND CHILL VALUES ARE SHRINKING IN COVERAGE AND MOSTLY
RELEGATED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEREFORE, THIS MORNING'S
HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
EARLIER, FOR THE MOUNTAINS, COLD WX HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED
THROUGH WED MORNING. ELSEWHERE, THEY WERE REISSUED FOR TONIGHT
ASIDE FROM THE SLIGHTLY WARMER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA.
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MULTIPLE REINFORCING SHOTS OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A TRULY NOTEWORTHY COLD AIR OUTBREAK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND PERHAPS NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE SUBTLETIES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD WX HEADLINES WILL EXIST
EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL BE COLD
AND TO CONTINUE TO PREPARE TO PROTECT YOURSELF, OTHERS, PETS,
AND LIVESTOCK.
RIVER ICE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH INCREASING THICKNESS OVER THE COMING WEEKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MID-WEEK.
A PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HIGH RATIO SNOW GIVEN COLD AIR AND
DECENT LIFT IN THE DGZ. QPF WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS, BUT THESE
EVENTS HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE BY NBM IN THE PAST PER LOCAL RESEARCH
SO HAVE GONE ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE WITH SLRS AND QPF. A GENERAL
1-3" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALLEGHENIES DURING THIS TIME.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT, WITH
MORE MTN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS DRIER, BUT STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY (HIGH END CEILING
A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFF).
KEY MESSAGE 3...MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND.
VERY FAVORABLE STORM PATTEN IN TERMS OF ANALOGS FOR BIG SNOWS IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. A 50/50 LOW & -NAO, IDAHO RIDGE,
BLOCKING OVER THE HUDSON BAY, AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST
PAC. COULDN'T ASK FOR A BETTER SYNOPTIC SETUP, BUT THE FORMATION
OF A STORM REMAINS IN THE DETAILS OF THIS HIGHLY SENSITIVE
PATTERN.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MILLER A TYPE NOR'EASTER (IT HAS
BEEN A WHILE FOR ONE TO FORM, LET ALONE SHOW UP IN MODEL
GUIDANCE). WHILE THE CEILING IS CERTAINLY HIGH FOR THIS STORM,
THERE IS EQUALLY IF NOT HIGHER ODDS IT JUST SKIRTS OUT TO SEE AS
INDICATED BY THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. FUTURE RUNS
WILL HAVE TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS A TREND OR NOISE. HOW THE TPV
EVOLVES WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS ON IF THIS STORM
COMES TO FRUITION OR NOT AND IMPACTS LAND.
REGARDLESS, EXPECT FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL
THE PATTERN IS BETTER SAMPLED AS ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS ONSHORE
ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH WED. WINDS
ARE SW'LY THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT W WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED.
BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK WITH WIND THE MAIN IMPACT TO
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER HAZARD IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WNW THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND EASTERN
SHORE ZONES ARE ADDED TO THE SCA TONIGHT, WITH WINDS SUBSIDING
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUB-SCA LEVEL W WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY WED
AFTERNOON.
WINDS INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ON THU WITH ADVISORIES LIKELY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501-
509-510.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501-509-
510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ027>031-038>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-
527.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ025>031-053>055-057-501-502-504>508-526-
527.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025-
026-036-037-504-507-508.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ050>053-055-502-504.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ503-
506.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ503.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KJP/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/CPB
MARINE...ADS/KJP/CPB
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