324
FXUS61 KLWX 272030
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
330 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL
WATERS THIS EVENING. DETAILS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE REGARDING THE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- 2) PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- 3) MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL AGAIN COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TO AN
EXTENT. AREAS WHICH DECOUPLE TOWARD DAWN MAY DROP WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. SO WHILE THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME GAPS IN COLD
ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE COMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL
VALUES CLOSE TO 0 (OR LOWER) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS
EXPANDED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
AREA IN COLLABORATION WITH WFO WAKEFIELD. DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND 20 BELOW ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, WHERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY
CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ENOUGH
AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN A RESPITE IN LOWER
WIND CHILL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MULTIPLE REINFORCING SHOTS OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A TRULY NOTEWORTHY
COLD AIR OUTBREAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND PERHAPS NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE REGION. SUBTLETIES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD WX HEADLINES
WILL EXIST EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THERE'S NO LONGER AN
OBVIOUS "COLDEST" NIGHT...JUST SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN
THEM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL BE COLD AND TO CONTINUE TO
PREPARE TO PROTECT YOURSELF, OTHERS, PETS, AND LIVESTOCK.
RIVER ICE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH INCREASING THICKNESS OVER THE COMING WEEKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MID-WEEK.
A PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PIVOTS THROUGH.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE
TONIGHT. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HIGH RATIO SNOW GIVEN COLD AIR AND
DECENT LIFT IN THE DGZ. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE DEPTH, WITH FORECAST LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THESE EVENTS HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE BY
NBM IN THE PAST PER LOCAL RESEARCH SO HAVE GONE ABOVE NBM
GUIDANCE WITH SLRS AND QPF. A GENERAL 1-3" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS ALLEGHENIES DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE OVER
A TENTH OF AN INCH AS INDICATED BY SOME CAMS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
ALLEGHENIES. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS DRIER, BUT STILL A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SPREAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY (HIGH END CEILING A COUPLE INCHES
OF FLUFF).
KEY MESSAGE 3...MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
COASTAL LOW THIS WEEKEND. NEARLY ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONG
COASTAL LOW FORMING, BUT THERE'S STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING BOTH WHERE THAT LOW WILL TRACK, AND WHAT IMPACTS WE WILL
EXPERIENCE LOCALLY. POTENTIAL OUTCOMES RANGE ANYWHERE FROM A STORM
THAT TRACKS WELL OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE IMPACT LOCALLY, TO A STORM
THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND PRODUCES HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION.
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FORECAST BY MODELS HAS MANY OF THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORMS, WITH RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST, TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST, AMPLE COLD AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, AND THEN DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, THE TREND WITH INCOMING EPS AND GEPS
TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD WITH PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW,
ULTIMATELY SHOWING A FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TRACK. THE
12Z GFS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL SNOWIER SOLUTION, AND GEFS
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW TRENDED UPWARD. SPATIALLY SPEAKING,
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST FOR SNOW IN ALL GUIDANCE THE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST YOU GO. IN OUR AREA, SOUTHERN MARYLAND WOULD HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING SNOW.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE FLOW PATTERN AT UPPER LEVELS PRECEDING
THIS STORM IS HIGHLY COMPLEX. THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
ULTIMATELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY
LOCATED OVER NEWFOUNDLAND CURRENTLY AND WILL ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD AND
DIGGING OUT THE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW. AS THIS DISTURBANCE TURNS
SOUTHWARD, IT WILL ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ALASKA
AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE HIGH COMPLEXITY
OF THESE INTERACTIONS, IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER 1-2 DAYS FOR MODELS TO
SETTLE INTO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE SOLUTION, AND AS A RESULT, THE DOOR
IS STILL OPEN FOR LARGE FORECAST SHIFTS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS COULD DROP TO AROUND FL050 FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THAT
FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WNW WINDS MAY GUST
TO AROUND 20 KT ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE BENIGN WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW MAY POTENTIALLY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IF A
COASTAL LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO THE AREA. IF THAT SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
OUT TO SEA, CONDITIONS WOULD BE VFR. EITHER WAY, GUSTY NORTHERLY
APPEAR LIKELY.
MARINE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ON THE INTERIOR WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
THAT INCLUDES AREAS SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE AS WELL AS ALL OF
THE POTOMAC. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WNW THIS EVENING BEHIND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND EASTERN
SHORE ZONES ARE ADDED TO THE SCA TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 30
KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL SURGE. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT REACHES
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUB-SCA LEVEL W WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY
WED AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH SCAS LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SUB-SCA NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO OUT OF THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND PICK UP. AT LEAST SCAS APPEAR
LIKELY ON SATURDAY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER COASTAL
STORM DEVELOPS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501-509-
510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ025>031-037>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-
504>508-526-527.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ503.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
537-540-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ538-542.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KJP
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