785
FXUS61 KLWX 280744
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EITHER EXTENDED OR REISSUED FOR
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- 2) ANOTHER ROUND OF ALLEGHENY MOUNTAIN SNOW WED INTO THU.
- 3) STILL MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR WEEKEND COASTAL STORM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF HEADLINES, FOR THE MOUNTAINS, COLD WX HEADLINES WERE
EXTENDED THROUGH THU MORNING. ELSEWHERE, THEY WERE REISSUED FOR
TONIGHT ASIDE FROM THE SLIGHTLY WARMER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA.
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MULTIPLE REINFORCING SHOTS OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A TRULY NOTEWORTHY
COLD AIR OUTBREAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND PERHAPS NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE REGION. SUBTLETIES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL EXIST EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THERE'S NO
LONGER AN OBVIOUS "COLDEST" NIGHT...JUST SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS
BETWEEN THEM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL BE COLD AND TO CONTINUE
TO PREPARE TO PROTECT YOURSELF, OTHERS, PETS, AND LIVESTOCK.
RIVER ICE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH INCREASING THICKNESS OVER THE COMING WEEKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER ROUND OF ALLEGHENY MOUNTAIN SNOW WED INTO THU.
YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLEGHENIES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
LOCALLY A TENTH OF QPF. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY (HIGH END CEILING
A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFF).
BIGGER STORY LIKELY THE BLOWING SNOW OF THE SEVERAL INCHES OF
FLUFF THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE ADDED
BLOWING SNOW TO THE GRIDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STILL MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR WEEKEND COASTAL
STORM.
NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE PATTERN FOR A STORM ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WKND. A 50/50 LOW & -NAO, IDAHO RIDGE,
BLOCKING OVER THE HUDSON BAY, AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST
PAC. COULDN'T ASK FOR A BETTER SYNOPTIC SETUP, BUT THE FORMATION
OF A STORM REMAINS IN THE DETAILS OF THIS HIGHLY SENSITIVE
PATTERN.
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES REVEAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST/SLOWER. THEREFORE, EVENTUAL ULL IS
SLOWER TO PUSH EASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT SHIFT WEST IN RECENT STORM TRACKS. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THIS IS A TREND OR NOISE.
WHILE THE CEILING IS CERTAINLY HIGH FOR THIS STORM, THERE IS
EQUALLY IF NOT HIGHER ODDS IT JUST SKIRTS OUT TO SEA. FUTURE
RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS A TREND OR NOISE. HOW THE
TPV EVOLVES WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS ON IF THIS STORM
COMES TO FRUITION OR NOT AND IMPACTS LAND. TPVS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
NOT MODELED WELL GIVEN THE SOURCE LOCATION WITH LIMITED UA DATA.
THEREFORE, EXPECT FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL
THE PATTERN IS BETTER SAMPLED AS ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS ONSHORE
ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE IN THE PREDAWN AT MOST TERMINALS.
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING WNW WINDS
THAT MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS INTO THU. VFR CONDITIONS AND NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW MAY POTENTIALLY BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY IF A COASTAL LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO THE AREA. IF THAT
SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER OUT TO SEA, CONDITIONS WOULD BE VFR.
EITHER WAY, GUSTY N'LY WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING.
SUB- SCA LEVEL W WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SCAS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUB-SCA NW'LY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
OUT OF THE NORTH ON SAT AND PICK UP. AT LEAST SCAS APPEAR LIKELY
ON SAT, WITH GALES POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER COASTAL DEVELOPS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ008.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ501-509-
510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ025>031-037>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-504>508-526-
527.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ025>031-053-054-501-504>508-526-527.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ503.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ538-542.
DISCUSSION...CPB
AVIATION...CPB
MARINE...CPB
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