306
FXUS61 KLWX 281540
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A POTENTIAL COMMUTING HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LIGHT
SNOW IMPACTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS THE
WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN REISSUED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LIGHT SNOW COULD IMPACT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA. A POTENTIAL COMMUTING
HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- 2) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- 3) STILL MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEEKEND COASTAL WINTER
STORM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT SNOW COULD IMPACT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA. A POTENTIAL
COMMUTING HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ANOTHER WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS WHERE HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POCKET OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
IMPACTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COMMUTE. CURRENT 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT KPBZ AND KIAD INDICATE AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS (LOW LEVEL RH 64 PERCENT AND MID-LEVEL RH 20 PERCENT).
HI-RES CAMS SHOW A SPIKE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES ON AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH.
WITH THAT SAID, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL FALL OUT OF THE
LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN (3-4KFT ABOVE US DOWN TO
THE SURFACE) WITH AMPLE LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ (FROM THE
SHORTWAVE/JET MAX PUSHING THROUGH). THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER A HALF AN INCH. DESPITE SEVERAL NON- METEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS (I.E SCHOOL CLOSURES, ROAD CREWS ALREADY OUT/TREATING
ROADS, AND INCREASED TELEWORK POSTURES AMONGST BUSINESSES) WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A POTENTIAL COMMUTING HAZARD STATEMENT FOR THE
WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA. THE CORRIDOR OF CONCERN SITS BETWEEN
HAGERSTOWN, MD AND SOUTHERN MD BETWEEN 3-9PM. THE PROBABILITY
FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IS RIGHT AROUND 30 PERCENT. IF THE THREAT
MATERIALIZES EXPECT SLICK TRAVEL DURING THE EVENING RUSH,
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY NEGATE
THE EXTRA TREATMENT ALREADY ON THE ROADWAYS. ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 8-9PM AS THE
SHORTWAVE CUTS EAST. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, EXPECT ANOTHER
DUSTING-1" OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS UP TO 2" IF ANY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH. DID BUMP UP AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
HIGHER FLUFF (RATIOS GREATER THAN 30- 40:1). BIGGER STORY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE THE CONTINUATION OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE FLUFFY SNOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED ISSUES
ON ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS (I.E HIGH MOUNTAIN FIELDS
ETC.). CONTINUED TO RUN BLOWING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
COORDINATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS LOOK
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VA REMAIN EXEMPT FROM THESE ADVISORIES AS GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THESE LOCATIONS (CENTRAL VA WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 2-7 DEGREES).
ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF ARCTIC COLD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL FOLLOW WITHIN PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF FRIGID CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
TEENS AND 20S (SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS (SUBZERO MOUNTAINS). WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW ZERO DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY SHOULD HELP WITH MARGINAL
MELTING ALTHOUGH REFREEZE IS EXPECTED EVERY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH FOR THE PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH SOME INCLINATION OF GETTING BACK TOWARD FREEZING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUBTLETIES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EXIST EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THERE'S NO LONGER AN OBVIOUS "COLDEST"
NIGHT...JUST SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN THEM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
IT WILL BE COLD AND TO CONTINUE TO PREPARE TO PROTECT YOURSELF,
OTHERS, PETS, AND LIVESTOCK. RIVER ICE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH INCREASING THICKNESS
OVER THE COMING WEEKS. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE BAY ALONG WITH
MAIN STEM RIVER/CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STILL MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEEKEND COASTAL
WINTER STORM.
NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE PATTERN FOR A STORM ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WKND. A 50/50 LOW & -NAO, IDAHO RIDGE,
BLOCKING OVER THE HUDSON BAY, AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST PAC.
COULDN'T ASK FOR A BETTER SYNOPTIC SETUP, BUT THE FORMATION OF A
STORM REMAINS IN THE DETAILS OF THIS HIGHLY SENSITIVE PATTERN.
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES REVEAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST/SLOWER. THEREFORE, EVENTUAL ULL IS SLOWER
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
SLIGHT SHIFT WEST IN RECENT STORM TRACKS. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF THIS IS A TREND OR NOISE.
WHILE THE CEILING IS CERTAINLY HIGH FOR THIS STORM, THERE IS EQUALLY
IF NOT HIGHER ODDS IT JUST SKIRTS OUT TO SEA. FUTURE RUNS WILL HAVE
TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS A TREND OR NOISE. HOW THE TPV EVOLVES WILL BE
ONE OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS ON IF THIS STORM COMES TO FRUITION OR NOT
AND IMPACTS LAND. TPVS ARE NOTORIOUSLY NOT MODELED WELL GIVEN THE
SOURCE LOCATION WITH LIMITED UA DATA.
THEREFORE, EXPECT FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE
PATTERN IS BETTER SAMPLED AS ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20Z-01Z/3-
8PM DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. TERMINALS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED BY THIS
INCLUDE KDCA, KHGR, KFDK, KADW, AND KIAD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW
(30 PERCENT) GIVEN HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST A STRIPE
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FALLING OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BETWEEN 3-4 KFT UP DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME WINDOW ABOVE. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IF THIS
THREAT MATERIALIZES. FOR NOW, OPTED TO KEEP THIS OUT OF THE
RECENT AMENDMENTS, BUT MAY EMPHASIZE WITH PROB30S AT LEAST AT
KDCA AND PERHAPS KIAD FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. WIND WILL GRADUALLY
LIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH. EXPECT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING
BACK TOWARD MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW MAY POTENTIALLY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
IF A COASTAL LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO THE AREA. IF THAT SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER OUT TO SEA, CONDITIONS WOULD BE VFR. EITHER WAY, GUSTY N'LY
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.
MARINE
SUB- SCA LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SCAS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUB-SCA NW'LY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
OUT OF THE NORTH ON SAT AND PICK UP. AT LEAST SCAS APPEAR LIKELY
ON SAT, WITH GALES POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER COASTAL DEVELOPS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ501-509-
510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ025>031-037>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-504>508-526-
527.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ025>031-053-054-501-504>508-526-527.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ503.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ538.
DISCUSSION...CPB/EST
AVIATION...CPB/EST
MARINE...CPB/EST
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