340
FXUS61 KLWX 281948
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
248 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A POTENTIAL
COMMUTING HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LIGHT SNOW
IMPACTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
DC METRO AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LIGHT SNOW COULD IMPACT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA. A POTENTIAL COMMUTING
HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- 2) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- 3) CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT SNOW COULD IMPACT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA. A POTENTIAL
COMMUTING HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ANOTHER WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS WHERE HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POCKET OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
IMPACTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COMMUTE. HI-RES CAMS
SHOW A SPIKE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
ON AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH. WITH THAT SAID, IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL FALL OUT OF THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN (3-4KFT ABOVE US DOWN TO THE SURFACE) WITH AMPLE LIFT THROUGH
THE DGZ (FROM THE SHORTWAVE/JET MAX PUSHING THROUGH). THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A HALF AN INCH. DESPITE SEVERAL NON-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS (I.E SCHOOL CLOSURES, ROAD CREWS ALREADY
OUT/TREATING ROADS, AND INCREASED TELEWORK POSTURES AMONGST
BUSINESSES) WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A POTENTIAL COMMUTING HAZARD
STATEMENT FOR THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA. THE CORRIDOR OF CONCERN
SITS BETWEEN HAGERSTOWN, MD AND SOUTHERN MD BETWEEN 3-9PM. THE
PROBABILITY FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IS BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT. IF THE
THREAT MATERIALIZES EXPECT SLICK TRAVEL DURING THE EVENING RUSH,
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY NEGATE THE
EXTRA TREATMENT ALREADY ON THE ROADWAYS FOR SNOW STICKAGE IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR. ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 8-9PM AS THE SHORTWAVE CUTS EAST. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, EXPECT ANOTHER DUSTING-1" OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED
POCKETS UP TO 2" IF ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH. DID
BUMP UP AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGHER FLUFF (RATIOS GREATER THAN
30-40:1). MAIN STORY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE THE
CONTINUATION OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE FLUFFY SNOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS (I.E HIGH MOUNTAIN FIELDS ETC.). CONTINUED TO RUN BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING
OFFICES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS LOOK
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VA (I.E ALBEMARLE AND NELSON COUNTIES) REMAIN EXEMPT FROM
THESE ADVISORIES AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THESE
LOCATIONS (WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 2-8 DEGREES).
ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF ARCTIC COLD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL FOLLOW WITHIN PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF FRIGID CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
TEENS AND 20S (SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS (SUBZERO MOUNTAINS). WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW ZERO DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY SHOULD HELP WITH MARGINAL
MELTING ALTHOUGH REFREEZE IS EXPECTED EVERY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH FOR THE PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH SOME INCLINATION OF GETTING BACK TOWARD FREEZING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUBTLETIES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EXIST EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THERE'S NO LONGER AN OBVIOUS "COLDEST"
NIGHT...JUST SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN THEM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
IT WILL BE COLD AND TO CONTINUE TO PREPARE TO PROTECT YOURSELF,
OTHERS, PETS, AND LIVESTOCK. RIVER ICE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH INCREASING THICKNESS
OVER THE COMING WEEKS. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE BAY ALONG WITH
MAIN STEM RIVER/CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STILL MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEEKEND COASTAL
WINTER STORM.
A BROAD ZONAL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DIG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH, WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS APPROACHING RECORD
LOW VALUES OVER SOME SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEUTRAL TILT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA, THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, THEN QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
RACES NORTHEAST NEAR / PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE LOW TRACKS JUST ENOUGH EAST / SOUTH OF OUR
AREA THAT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER,
THE COMPLETE ENSEMBLE SUITE STILL HAS DECENTLY HIGH PROBABILITIES
FOR 2" / 4" / 6" OF SNOW EVEN UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A SHORT DISTANCE
BETWEEN A COATING OF SNOW TO SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME,
CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (PER THE LATEST WSSI) ARE IN
SOUTHERN VA TO THE CAROLINAS.
WHILE THE CEILING REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS STORM, THERE IS EQUALLY IF
NOT HIGHER ODDS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FUTURE RUNS WILL HAVE
TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS A TREND OR NOISE. SIGNIFICANT MODEL CHANGES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS UPPER AIR DATA SAMPLES THE
VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
THIS WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z-01Z/4-
8PM DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. TERMINALS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED BY THIS
INCLUDE KDCA, KHGR, KFDK, AND KIAD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW (30
PERCENT) GIVEN HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS A STRIPE OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FALLING OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN BETWEEN 3-4 KFT UP DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME WINDOW
ABOVE. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IF THIS THREAT
MATERIALIZES. WENT AHEAD AND EMPHASIZED THIS SNOW POTENTIAL WITH
PROB30S AT KDCA, KIAD, AND KBWI BETWEEN 21-01Z/4-8PM. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TOWARD MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
PENDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. IF THE
SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER OUT TO SEA, CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR VFR AMONGST
ALL THE TERMINALS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ONE THING THAT WE
DO KNOW IS THAT THE WIND WILL INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS 25 KTS+ THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SUB-SCA LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH. GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS RETURN FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE.
A COASTAL LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE EARLY
THIS WEEKEND, THEN RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE LOCAL WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LIKELY,
WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35-40 KT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE (50 KT) ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW TRACKS. REGARDLESS, DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ501-509-
510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ025>031-038>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-
504>508-526-527.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ503.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
536.
DISCUSSION...CPB/KRR/EST
AVIATION...KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page