456
FXUS61 KLWX 290230
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS THE LOW-END THREAT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED OVER THE METRO AREAS, HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
THIS SNOW IN THE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM, 18Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE EARLIER SIGNAL OF STEERING THE SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE LOW PLOTS STILL SHOW
APPROXIMATELY 20 TO 30 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS WITH A BETTER SHOT
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG/EAST OF I-95.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- 2) BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.
- 3) CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA (I.E
ALBEMARLE AND NELSON COUNTIES) REMAIN EXEMPT FROM THESE
ADVISORIES AS GUIDANCE HAS REMAINS SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SUCH
LOCATION (WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 2-8 DEGREES).
ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY HAS DRIVEN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC COLD ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL FOLLOW WITHIN PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF FRIGID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS AND
20S (SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS (SUBZERO MOUNTAINS). WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW ZERO DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY SHOULD HELP WITH
MARGINAL MELTING ALTHOUGH REFREEZE IS EXPECTED EVERY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME INCLINATION OF GETTING
BACK TOWARD FREEZING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUBTLETIES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EXIST EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THERE'S NO LONGER AN OBVIOUS "COLDEST"
NIGHT...JUST SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN THEM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
IT WILL BE COLD AND TO CONTINUE TO PREPARE TO PROTECT YOURSELF,
OTHERS, PETS, AND LIVESTOCK. RIVER ICE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH INCREASING THICKNESS
OVER THE COMING WEEKS. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE BAY ALONG WITH
MAIN STEM RIVER/CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR THE ALLEGHENIES, EXPECT ANOTHER DUSTING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW,
WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS UP TO 2 INCHES IF ANY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH. THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WAS BUMPED UP ON THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT GIVEN THE HIGHER FLUFF (SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS
GREATER THAN 30-40:1). MAIN STORY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE CONTINUATION OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE FLUFFY
SNOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS (I.E HIGH MOUNTAIN FIELDS ETC.).
CONTINUED TO RUN BLOWING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN EARLIER COORDINATION
WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STILL MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEEKEND COASTAL
WINTER STORM.
A BROAD ZONAL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DIG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH, WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS APPROACHING RECORD
LOW VALUES OVER SOME SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEUTRAL TILT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA, THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, THEN QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
RACES NORTHEAST NEAR / PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE LOW TRACKS JUST ENOUGH EAST / SOUTH OF OUR
AREA THAT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER,
THE COMPLETE ENSEMBLE SUITE STILL HAS DECENTLY HIGH PROBABILITIES
FOR 2" / 4" / 6" OF SNOW EVEN UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A SHORT DISTANCE
BETWEEN A COATING OF SNOW TO SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME,
CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (PER THE LATEST WSSI) ARE IN
SOUTHERN VA TO THE CAROLINAS.
WHILE THE CEILING REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS STORM, THERE IS EQUALLY IF
NOT HIGHER ODDS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FUTURE RUNS WILL HAVE
TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS A TREND OR NOISE. SIGNIFICANT MODEL CHANGES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS UPPER AIR DATA SAMPLES THE
VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
THIS WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. ANY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING HAVE NOT
COME TO FRUITION. AS SUCH, THE PROB30 GROUPS WERE REMOVED FROM
THE EARLIER TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, WHILE INCREASING INTO
THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH. EXPECT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING BACK TOWARD MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
PENDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. IF THE
SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER OUT TO SEA, CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR VFR AMONGST
ALL THE TERMINALS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ONE THING THAT WE
DO KNOW IS THAT THE WIND WILL INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS 25 KTS+ THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS RETURN FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFFSHORE.
A COASTAL LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE EARLY
THIS WEEKEND, THEN RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE LOCAL WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LIKELY,
WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35-40 KT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE (50 KT) ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW TRACKS. REGARDLESS, DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
008-011-013-014-016>018-501>510.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
038>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-504>508-526-527.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
055-502>504-506.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
536.
DISCUSSION...BRO/CPB/KRR/EST
AVIATION...BRO/KRR/EST
MARINE...BRO/KRR/EST
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