589
FXUS61 KLWX 300837
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
- A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL BRING BITTER TO EXTREME COLD WIND
CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...WHILE IS STILL VERY COLD THIS
MORNING, WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE NOT REACHED THE THRESHOLD OF
ZERO DEGREES YET, WHICH IS THE CRITERIA FOR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILL VALUES
TONIGHT WILL BE AGAIN CLOSE TO ZERO, SO NEW COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WERE ISSUED. THE COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH LATEST
FORECAST HAS VALUES REACHING SOLIDLY INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE AND
IN THE WARNING CATEGORY IN THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH
EXTREME COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...00Z TRENDS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE 00Z ECMWF, SHOWED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z RUNS FROM
YESTERDAY. PROBS OF 0.1" QPF REMAIN BELOW 30% ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ST. MARY'S COUNTY. IN ADDITION, 850 MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED MORE THAN 10C MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANY SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A DUSTING OF SNOW SEEMS TO BE OVER NELSON COUNTY VA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE THE COLD
AND WIND WITH GUSTS IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE CREATING BITTER TO
EXTREME COLD WIND CHILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MID NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH IS FCST TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND INDUCE
SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS
THE WEAKEST AND MOST SOUTHERN SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE
STRONGEST AND A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK. THIS LATEST 00Z EC
SOLUTION IS A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN CONTINUITY TO PRIOR RUNS THAT
SHOWED A WEAKER SOLUTION AND SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TRACE AND
ONE INCH. THE EPS AND EC AIFS SUGGEST THAT THE DETERMINISTIC
EURO IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SOLUTION. THE EPS
SHOWS THE PROBS OF 0.01" OF QPF IN THE 60-70% RANGE AND OF 0.1"
QPF IN THE 30-50% RANGE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 12Z WED-00Z THU
TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WINDS AND BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO
TERMINALS, MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER LATER TODAY AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS IN. WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND A
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH WAS
ALSO ISSUED FOR THE WIDER WATERS SOUTH OF DRUM POINT WHERE THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST, THE FETCH LONGER AND THE WAVES BIGGER.
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE ICE FREE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OFF SHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY LEAD TO BLOWOUT TIDE
CONDITIONS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501-503>510.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MDZ008.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ053-
054-501-503-505>508-526-527.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VAZ039-040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-
526-527.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VAZ503-507.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
503-505.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ530.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ531-
535-536-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ532>534-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR
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