550
FXUS61 KLWX 301426
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
926 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY "WARMING" THIS MORNING, AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 11 AM. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
- 2) A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL BRING BITTER TO EXTREME COLD
WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- 3) CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES AS OF MID MORNING WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH MIDDAY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING ACROSS.
WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE AGAIN CLOSE TO ZERO, SO NEW
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WERE ISSUED. THE COLDEST WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
LATEST FORECAST HAS VALUES REACHING SOLIDLY INTO THE ADVISORY
RANGE AND IN THE WARNING CATEGORY IN THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH
EXTREME COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
00Z TRENDS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS, PARTICULARLY FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, SHOWED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH WHEN
COMPARED TO THE 12Z RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. PROBS OF 0.1" QPF
REMAIN BELOW 30% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ST. MARY'S COUNTY.
IN ADDITION, 850 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED
MORE THAN 10C MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SNOW TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW SEEMS TO BE OVER
NELSON COUNTY VA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS STORM WILL BE THE COLD AND WIND WITH GUSTS IN THE 35-40 MPH
RANGE CREATING BITTER TO EXTREME COLD WIND CHILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MID NEXT WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH IS FCST TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUE AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW
AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE CANADIAN
MODEL SHOWS THE WEAKEST AND MOST SOUTHERN SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECMWF THE STRONGEST AND A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK. THIS LATEST 00Z
EC SOLUTION IS A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN CONTINUITY TO PRIOR RUNS
THAT SHOWED A WEAKER SOLUTION AND SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TRACE
AND ONE INCH. THE EPS AND EC AIFS SUGGEST THAT THE DETERMINISTIC
EURO IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SOLUTION. THE
EPS SHOWS THE PROBS OF 0.01" OF QPF IN THE 60-70% RANGE AND OF
0.1" QPF IN THE 30-50% RANGE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 12Z WED-00Z
THU TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT KCHO WHERE MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS EXCEPT AT KCHO WHERE
WINDS WILL BE MORE E/NE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MORE N
THIS WEEKEND BECOMING GUSTY LATE SAT THROUGH MON. CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BUT SNOW LIKELY STAYS SE OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER LATER MON.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY COULD
BRING SNOW BY MID WEEK.
MARINE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER LATER TODAY AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS IN. WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND A
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH WAS
ALSO ISSUED FOR THE WIDER WATERS SOUTH OF DRUM POINT WHERE THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST, THE FETCH LONGER AND THE WAVES BIGGER.
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE ICE FREE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY LEAD TO BLOWOUT TIDE
CONDITIONS. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES TIDES AS LOW AS 2 TO 3 FT
BELOW MLLW (LOWEST SUNDAY). DUE TO WIDESPREAD ICE BUILDUP, THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME PROPERTY DAMAGE (DOCKS, MOORINGS, ETC.) AS
BLOCK ICE IS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE SHORE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501-503>510.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-502-509-510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ053-
054-501-503-505>508-526-527.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VAZ039-040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-
526-527.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VAZ503-504-507-508.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
503-505.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ531-
535-536-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/DHOF
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