582  
FNUS71 KLWX 030904  
FWSLWX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEN BIG MEADOWS BONEYARD PILE RX...NPS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
404 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EST ON FEBRUARY 03.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT  
SNOW. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK  
BRINGING A RETURN TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........23 AT IGNITION...MAX 38.  
RH..................81 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 61 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST  
5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /400 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR  
/8700 KNOT-FT/.  
 
TIME (EST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........82 72 62 68 74 80 87 93 100 100  
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... SN SN SN SN SN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 40 40 40 40 40  
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............23 25 29 31 32 34 36 36 36 37  
RH..............81 78 72 69 63 61 61 64 67 67  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W SW SW W SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 1 4 7 8 9 8 6 4 0  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE  
EVENING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.  
CWR.................40 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE  
EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT  
OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 21.  
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND  
5 MPH OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 6  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 6 TO  
10 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (200 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 93 78  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............40 50 50 50 20 20  
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............34 31 31 29 28 25  
RH..............75 88 88 96 100 100  
20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 6 SW 5 W 3 NW 5 N 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 6 5 6 7  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 100 BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 S 6 N 7 N 9  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 0 0 0 0 0  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 29.  
RH..................MIN 68 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1100 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........75 67 69 73  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....SNOW NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............20 0 0 10  
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0  
TEMP............23 21 25 29  
RH..............100 100 84 69  
20 FT WIND......N 7G8 N 7G8 N 6G7 NE 7G8  
MIX HGT (FT)....100 200 1000 800  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 10 NE 8 N 7 N 7  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 2 6 5  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...ROSA  
REQUESTED BY...LANE GIBBONS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2601524.0/LWX  
.DELDT 02/03/26  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL LANE_GIBBONS@NPS.GOV  
 
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