182
FXUS61 KLWX 130753
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. A SOAKING CHILLY
RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY, THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN RAIN
AMOUNTS DO REMAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A CHILLY SOAKING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH VERY LIMITED SNOW POSSIBLE.
- 2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CHILLY SOAKING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIMITED SNOW POSSIBLE.
THE 00Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A
SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE
LIKELY TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA - GOING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO OFF THE GA/SC COASTLINE. A SECONDARY WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VALLEY WHERE THERE IS SOME INTERACTION
OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS. THIS SECOND LOW TRACKS
EAST ACROSS VA/NC SUNDAY, THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND UPPER TROUGH, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH.
A WEAK 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND, THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE VERY MARGINAL AS MOST OF THE AREA
SITS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE IN THE CLIMO
FAVORED AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND WEST OF US-15 TOWARD THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES, CATOCTINS, CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME SNOW AT THOSE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH PROBABILITIES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW HAVE REALLY DROPPED OFF WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE.
THE EPS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBS FOR 1" OF SNOW IN THE
CLIMO FAVORED AREAS AT 20-40PCT, BUT THAT IS A BIG DROP FROM THE 50-
70PCT CHANCE FROM THE 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. THE GEFS AND GEPS ARE LESS
THAN 20PCT FOR 1" OF SNOW. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE OPERATIONAL GFS
DOES SHOW RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE COLDER CLIMO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT EVEN THEN TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND 32F
WITH POSITIVE SNOW DEPTH OF ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING UNLIKELY FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IF ANY LOCATION SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST BET
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IT IS WITHIN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS, AROUND
PENDLETON/HIGHLAND COUNTIES.
MOST ARE LIKELY TO SEE A SOAKING/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, THOUGH
DEPENDING ON HOW PROGRESSIVE/SOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH IS THERE COULD
BE A SHARP NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE 00Z
EPS AND GEFS 50TH PERCENTILE FOR QPF IS AROUND 0.20-0.50" TO THE
NORTH OF I-66, AND UP TO 1" SOUTH TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR. THE GEFS
IS THE DRIEST, WITH VERY LITTLE QPF NORTH OF I-66. THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE IS DEFINITELY THE WETTEST OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN VA WHERE
THE HIGH-END PERCENTILES ARE OVER 2". WHILE THERE IS GOING TO BE A
STRIPE OF HIGHER QPF SOMEWHERE, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IF
ANY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH
RESIDUAL SNOW PACK AND ICY RIVERS/CREEKS (NOT TO MENTION THE
COLD/LESS ABSORPTIVE GROUND). THESE VALUES ARE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH/SOUTH PLAYING A BIG
DIFFERENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL CONTINUE
CLIMBING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS COULD REACH THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME, AND THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND IF IT
WILL SAG BACK SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO
BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. A STEADY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN AT MRB, BUT
THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AT ALL TERMINALS IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN AT THIS
TIME.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS. VFR CONDTIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
THIS MORNING, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH NOON.
AFTER THAT, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
WATERS ON SUNDAY, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS
OF THE WATERS AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541-543.
DISCUSSION...KRR/ADS
AVIATION...KRR/ADS
MARINE...KRR/ADS
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