297
FXUS61 KLWX 140214
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH REGARDS TO THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM. STILL WATCHING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A CHILLY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- 2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CHILLY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PRIMARY UL TROF & ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THE 2ND LOW WILL IMPACT THE FA SUN IN SUN NIGHT.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT STRENGTH OF HIGH PRES TO N AND HOW
QUICKLY IT RETREATS. DEALING WITH LOBE OF PV WITH LOW
PREDICTABILITY. MODEL TRENDS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHOWN
A S-WRD TREND WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRES FCST TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SRN MID-ATL SUN NIGHT WITH LOWER QPF AND A WARMER
SOLN. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. THE PRECIP IS NOW
FCST TO EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF SNOW, AREAS ABOVE 2-3KFT MOST LKLY TO SEE SNOW
GIVEN MRGL SFC TEMPS AND PROFILES. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN VCNTY
OF SPRUCE KNOB AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF PENDLETON/HIGHLAND FOR
SNOW, BUT COULD EASILY SEE HILLTOPS COATED EASTWARD DEPENDING ON
SYSTEM EVOLUTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE EAST MID NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM
FROM AN UL TROF OVER THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WARM UP WITH TEMPS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
HOWEVER, WE'LL NEED TO WATCH FOR BACKDOOR FRONTS THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WHICH MAY RESULT IN LARGE FCST ERRORS IN TEMPS. LOOKING
AT 10-DAY TRENDS FOR TEMPS FROM THE EC, THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF
VOLATILITY IN MAXT ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS, BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT ONE MILD DAY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WED. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A COOLER
TREND TO END NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, LIKELY BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. A STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN AT MRB,
BUT THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AT ALL TERMINALS IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN AT
THIS TIME.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE LIKELY TUE AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
WATERS ON SUNDAY, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SCAS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE WATERS AS NE
WINDS INCREASE INTO MONDAY.
SCAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY IN NORTHERLY CHANNELING FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LFR/CJL/CPB
AVIATION...LFR/CJL/CPB
MARINE...LFR/CJL/CPB
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