189
FXUS61 KLWX 141400
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF
US-50/I-66 THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT SPLIT
ON THE MAGNITUDE OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW THREAT SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CHILLY RAIN STILL MOST LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- 2) A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK MAY BE INTERRUPTED BY A WAVY
FRONTAL ZONE THAT COULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHILLY RAIN STILL MOST LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DOES ATTEMPT TO PHASE
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE VA
TIDEWATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN,
BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR THAT TO OCCUR ONCE IT IS OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. TO OUR NORTH, A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT
NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP THIS AS A
CHILLY RAIN EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
ABOVE 2-3KFT IN THE ALLEGHENIES. GREATEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
VICINITY OF SPRUCE KNOB AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF PENDLETON/HIGHLAND
COUNTIES FOR SNOW, BUT COULD EASILY SEE THE HIGHER RIDGES TO THE
EAST ALSO GET A COATING OF SNOW. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT AS
THE LOW DEPARTS TEMPERATURES COULD COOL ALONG THE PA/MD BORDER FOR
THE EVENT TO FINISH WITH LIGHT SNOW. THE THREAT FOR ANY FLOODING
LOOKS MINIMAL AS THE AXIS OF HIGHER QPF IS SOUTH OF I-64. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ARE FORECAST WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS IN CENTRAL VA.
THE 00Z HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL
INDICATE RAIN AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. THE STRANGE OUTLIERS ARE THE GFS AND EURO AIFS THAT
CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH
FOCUSED IN THE TYPICAL COLDER CLIMO AREAS. THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO
OCCUR AS THE EVENT STARTS OUT AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO BE COOLED DYNAMICALLY TO GET TEMPS DOWN TO
AROUND 32-33F TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW. WHILE THIS COULD HAPPEN
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, IT IS GOING TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO
DO ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SETUP. DEW POINTS AND WET
BULB TEMPS ARE ALSO IN THE LOW 30S, AGAIN POINTING TO A CHILLY RAIN
EVENT. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT THE EPS AND GEFS SHOW BETWEEN A
COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MD/PA
BORDER FROM THE CATOCTINS TO NORTHEAST MD. THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO
WATCH WHERE TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST (RIGHT AROUND 32F) AND CONDITIONS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE MONDAY AS PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION FOR MONDAY IS IF WE
CAN ERODE THE LEFTOVER CAD WEDGE. SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A STEADY
REINFORCING NORTH WIND THAT KEEPS THE CLOUDS AND LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
LOCKED IN PLACE. IF THAT HAPPENS TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40F
(NOTE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MID 40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY
AFTERNOON).
KEY MESSAGE 2: A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK MAY BE INTERRUPTED BY
A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE THAT COULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL TREND ABOVE
NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL THEN SET UP
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN MARITIME CANADA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT COULD HAVE A HUGE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT WAVERS ABOUT BENEATH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. ENSEMBLE SPREAD SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE
MID 40S TO MID 60S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MIDWEST LOW
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A SECOND LOW COULD WORK ALONG THE FRONT AND
PROVIDE A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN AT SOME POINT FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL BRING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM RAIN. RAIN COMES TO AN
END MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY.
VFR CONDTIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF A WARM FRONT.
MARINE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT THIS COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE
IN NORTHERLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
POSSIBILITY CONFINED TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE COAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, BUT
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT IS POSITIONED.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/KRR
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/KRR
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/KRR
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