503
FXUS61 KLWX 150159
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
859 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING THIS EVENING. MOST 18Z GUIDANCE
AND EARLIEST INCOMING 00Z GUIDANCE FAVOR PRIMARILY A COLD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES).
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CHILLY RAIN IS STILL MOST LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- 2) WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK,
WITH A MID-WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHILLY RAIN IS STILL MOST LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DOES
ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER/JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE VA TIDEWATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY, BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR
THAT TO OCCUR ONCE IT IS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. TO OUR NORTH, A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP THIS AS A
CHILLY RAIN EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GREATEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF
SPRUCE KNOB AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF PENDLETON/HIGHLAND COUNTIES
FOR SNOW, BUT COULD EASILY SEE THE HIGHER RIDGES TO THE EAST
ALSO GET A COATING OF SNOW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A
BIT HIGHER FOR SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH A FEW MEMBERS
EVEN SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AT THE END OF THE EVENT IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST MD. THE
THREAT FOR ANY FLOODING LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW AS THE AXIS OF
HIGHEST QPF IS SOUTH OF I-64, THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UP
A BIT WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE.
THE 12Z HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THAT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL
INDICATE RAIN AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. OUTLIERS SUCH AS THE NAM12, RRFS A, AND EPS-AIFS
AMONG A FEW OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH FOCUSED IN THE TYPICAL
COLDER CLIMO AREAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW SEEMS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR
BELOW 800 FEET ELEVATION (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US-50/I-66) SINCE
THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO BE COOLED DYNAMICALLY TO GET TEMPS
DOWN TO AROUND 32-33F. WHILE THIS COULD HAPPEN IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO DO ELSEWHERE WITH
THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SETUP. DEW POINTS AND WET BULB TEMPS ARE
ALSO IN THE LOW 30S, AGAIN POINTING TO A CHILLY RAIN EVENT. ONE
THING OF NOTE IS THAT THE EPS, EPS-AIFS, GEFS, SREF, AND HREF
ALL SHOW PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW GREATER THAN 1 INCH
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER, MAINLY FROM
THE CATOCTINS TO NORTHEAST MD. THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH
WHERE TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST (RIGHT AROUND 32F) AND CONDITIONS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE MONDAY AS PRECIP ENDS QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION FOR MONDAY IS IF WE
CAN ERODE THE LEFTOVER CAD WEDGE. SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A STEADY
REINFORCING NORTH WIND THAT KEEPS THE CLOUDS AND LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
LOCKED IN PLACE. IF THAT HAPPENS, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40F
(NOTE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MID 40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY PM).
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK,
WITH A MID-WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL START TO EMERGE
TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING BETWEEN AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MARITIME CANADA. AS
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY, RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT COULD HAVE A
SLIGHTLY TEMPERING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, BUT AT THE MOMENT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE, WITH CURRENT ENSEMBLE SPREAD SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID-40S TO MID-60S BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY. LOOKING AHEAD, A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STEMMING
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK COULD INTRODUCE MORE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT KMTN LATE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM
RAIN. PRECIP MAY END AS SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES,
WITH FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. RAIN COMES TO AN END MONDAY AM.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
VSBYS/CIGS TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
ISOLATED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WED/THU AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD REACH
15 KNOT GUSTS DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS).
MARINE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN NORTHERLY WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN
SHOWING POSSIBLE GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE TO
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY EARLY MONDAY.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
WARM FRONT BRINGS GUST POTENTIAL BACK UP TO 15 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 10-15
KNOTS S/SW INTO THURSDAY, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
A FRONT IS POSITIONED BY THEN.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/KJP/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/KRR/SRT
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/KRR/SRT
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