837
FXUS61 KLWX 150820
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOAKING CHILLY
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE ALLEGHENIES, ABOVE
3000 FEET. FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, SOME OF IT COULD BE DENSE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CHILLY RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- 2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHILLY RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VIRTUAL AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION TODAY IS GOING TO BE RAIN, WITH SNOW LIMITED TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN SOME OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
THE POTENT MID/UPPER TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY, THE MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE TOO
FAR NORTH AND WEAK TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND IS GOING TO HELP SETUP A CAD
WEDGE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, BUT IT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN
TEMPS MUCH COLDER THAN 32-34F.
AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION TODAY IS GOING TO BE A COLD RAIN. THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE ALLEGHENIES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING, AND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE AT LEAST SOME STEADIER SNOW IS
POSSIBLE, WITH A DUSTING TO AROUND 1" OF SNOW FORECAST. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY IN THOSE HIGHER RIDGES OF WESTERN PENDLETON AND
WESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER, BUT IT WON'T BE
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE BEYOND A DUSTING ON THE GRASS.
OVERALL, THIS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN FOR THE DROUGHT-
STRICKEN REGION. PRECIP AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH ALONG
I-70 TO AROUND ONE INCH FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD. PRECIP COMES
TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY
SUNRISE. THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS ONCE
PRECIP MOVES OUT WILL FAVOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS DUE TO A
STEADY LIGHT NORTH WIND, BUT THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DENSE FOG OVER A WIDE SWATH OF THE AREA.
THE NORTHERLY WINDS THAT PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE PRESENT CAD WEDGE. AS A RESULT,
CLOUD COVER AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-66/US-48.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
FRONTAL ZONE THAT OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WED-FRI
MAKING TEMPERATURES, SKY COVER, AND POPS FCST SOMEWHAT TRICKY, BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. FRIDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE DAY THAT COULD HAVE THE LARGEST ERRORS AS THE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES IS QUITE LARGE AND IT IS TIED TO THE PLACEMENT OF A
SHARP/STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA. EVENTUALLY, A STRONGER
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING NOTABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
MODERATE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH CIGS CRASHING TO
IFR LEVELS. ONCE RAIN COMES TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING, THERE IS
GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW LOW CIGS AND VSBY DROP TONIGHT, BUT VERY LIKELY TO BE
AT OR NEAR LIFR LEVELS.
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE TIME TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS HANG
AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA WED AND MAY BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND A RISK OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE TO LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS. FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
DISCUSSION...KRR/LFR
AVIATION...KRR/LFR
MARINE...KRR/LFR
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