302
FXUS61 KLWX 160140
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
840 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AS OF ABOUT 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR AND ABOVE 4000
FEET ELEVATION IN THE APPALACHIANS, WITH SNOW LEVELS POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET BEFORE ENDING LATER THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A CHILLY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
- 2) TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
VARIABLE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CHILLY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 830 PM, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STEADY RAIN ONGOING ALONG AND
EAST OF I-81. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, EVENTUALLY CLEARING
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY AROUND 2 AM. A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MARYLAND AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 30S.
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MOST,
BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IF ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DO DEVELOP, FOG (SOME OF IT POTENTIALLY DENSE)
COULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S FOR
MOST. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY REFREEZE POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND BLUE RIDGE, WHERE
THEY'LL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND VARIABLE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK.
A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CAUSE A WARM
FRONT TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH,
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER, AS AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEAST. THE
REGIONAL FRONTAL SETUP FOR THIS SECOND LOW IS STILL SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MODEL VARIANCE DEPENDING ON THE BAROCLINIC
SETUP TO THE NORTH, BUT IN GENERAL THE CURRENT OUTLOOK SHOWS A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECASTED TRACK, AS
ANY DEVIATIONS OR COOLING TRENDS IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITIES BACK FOR
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. IF ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS,
THEN FOG WOULD LIKELY FORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OCCUR WILL
LIKELY BE AT CHO AND MRB, ALTHOUGH IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT
ANYWHERE. EITHER WAY, IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
FROM LOW CLOUDS OR FOG.
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE TIME TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS HANG
AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A COOL
AIR WEDGE LEFT IN PLACE. WINDS BECOME SE TO S MON NIGHT-TUE.
A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/THURSDAY MORNING COULD TEMPORARILY BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO TERMINALS, ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS SW. AN
ADDITIONAL FRONT ON FRIDAY MAY AGAIN BRING DOWN VSBYS AND CIGS INTO
THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE TO LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TEMPORARILY BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND SCAS CURRENTLY LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THEN. LOOKING
AHEAD, WINDS MAY PICK BACK UP A BIT AS A SECOND FRONT PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT THE CURRENT MAXIMUM FORECASTED WIND GUSTS ARE ONLY 15
KNOTS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ON IF ADDITIONAL SCAS
ARE NECESSARY BY THEN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME WATER
TO BOTTLE UP NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AS WINDS GO
LIGHT THEN TURN ONSHORE, TIDE LEVELS RISE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
STOFS SHOWS THRESHOLD MINOR FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS FOR BOTH HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TUESDAY (EARLY MORNING AND EARLY EVENING). THE SFAS
ENSEMBLE AND ESPECIALLY THE CBOFS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TUESDAY, BUT THIS SEEMS A BIT
HIGH GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW. MEANWHILE, ETSS/P-ETSS APPEAR
TO BE TOO "FLAT" WITH THE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE ANAMOLIES. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE STOFS WITH A SLIGHT NOD TOWARD THE SUBDUED ETSS,
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR JUST HOW MUCH WATER GETS
BOTTLED UP AT THE BOTTOM OF THE BAY ON MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/KJP/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/KRR/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/KRR/SRT
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