634
FXUS61 KLWX 160728
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
228 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MIST
LINGERING. WHILE THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG STILL EXISTS, THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG
FROM DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- 2) TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
VARIABLE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
RAIN IS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE. IN ITS WAKE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND MIST ARE ONGOING WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN WESTERN MD THROUGH SUNRISE. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WINDS ARE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING, INSTEAD THERE IS VERY LOW
STRATUS. AS A RESULT, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY LIKELY WILL NOT NEED TO
BE EXPANDED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG, BUT THAT THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS WE GET CLOSE TO
SUNRISE.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF, IF NOT THE ENTIRE DAY.
THE CAD WEDGE IN PLACE DUE TO YESTERDAY'S RAIN IS GOING TO TAKE A
WHILE TO BREAK AND PROBABLY WON'T ENTIRELY ERODE NORTH OF I-66 AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/CATOCTINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING WILL
BE IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT AND
THESE AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS REACH THE LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE 40S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND VARIABLE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK.
IT SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 50S TUE AND WED AS A WARM FRONT SETS UP
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST BEGINS TO
INCREASE THU AS A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT GREAT LKS SURFACE LOW WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AREAWIDE THU AFTERNOON- FRI WHILE A PAIR OF
SFC LOWS RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. FRI CONTINUES TO HAVE
THE LARGEST SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES WITH OVER 20 DEG
SPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 60
DEGREES. TRENDS FROM THE PAST 10 RUNS FROM THE ECMWF HAVE ALSO SHOWN
SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY WITH TEMPS AS HIGH AS 70F SEVERAL DAYS AGO
NOW DOWN TO 42 ON THE MOST RECENT 12Z RUN. A NOTABLE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO START THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND MIST ARE PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS OF 07Z. NORTH WINDS ARE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WHICH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING,
THOUGH A STEADY MIST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND MOST OF THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM IFR TO MVFR SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE
CONDITIONS GO VFR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST AT BWI/MTN,
BUT COULD ALSO OCCUR AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
FAIR WEATHER TUE AND WED WITH JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. A BACKDOOR FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TERMINALS, EXCEPT PERHAPS AT CHO.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY.
MARINE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE HAS INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE. WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO THU MORNING, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO STRENGTHENING FLOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN HIGHER TIDE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS COULD REACH ACTION STAGE DURING HIGH TIDE, WITH
ANNAPOLIS POSSIBLY REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE DURING THE TUESDAY
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501-509-
510.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
DISCUSSION...KRR/LFR
AVIATION...KRR/LFR
MARINE...KRR/LFR
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