852
FXUS61 KLWX 171942
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
242 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INTRODUCED THE THREAT FOR MORE FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUMPED DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY DUE TO COLD
AIR WEDGE SIGNAL. ADDED SOME DETAIL IN KEY MESSAGE 2, REGARDING
THE WEEKEND POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
- 2) COLDER THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL STORM.
- 3) WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES STARTING
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED SURFACE-LEVEL
MOISTURE AIDED BY SNOWMELT, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE MUCH LIKE
WE SAW TODAY MOST LIKELY, WITH FOG THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE MORNING. NOW, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
AND WINDS PICKING UP A BIT, I DO EXPECT THINGS TO SCOUR OUT A
BIT QUICKER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG, WITH ADVISORIES POTENTIALLY BEING NEEDED. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF LOWEST VISIBILITIES IS OVER NORTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MD. BE SURE TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR YOUR
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE, AND USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN DRIVING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLDER THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
STORM.
PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF LEADER-FOLLOW SYSTEM THIS WKND WITH LEADER
COMING FRI AND FOLLOWER SUN. UL TRENDS OVER PAST FEW SYNOP RUNS IN
DET AND ENS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUN
SYSTEM TO MATERIALIZE. MORE BLOCKING IN ATL WITH RIDGE GOING UP
OFFSHORE HAS TRENDED TO MORE AMPLIFICATION AND MODELS HINTING AT A
STORM (POTENTIALLY BIGGER). JUST AS MANY ENSEMBLES WEAKER WITH
RIDGING AND SUPPRESSED STORM OTS. MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO BE
PLENTIFUL, MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH COLD AIR. WOULD NEED
STRONGER SYSTEM TO GET IMPACTFUL SNOW OUTSIDE TERRAIN IN ORDER TO
GET MORE COLD AIR BROUGHT INTO SYSTEM. EVEN IF STORM DOES DEVELOP,
MAY NOT BE ALL SNW OUTSIDE MTNS WITH RAIN MIXING IN. OVERALL H5
PATTERN DOES SUPPORT UPSLP SNW BEHIND DEPARTING TROF. TO SHOW THE
UNCERTAINTY, EPS 50TH PCNTL IS A COATING TO INCH FOR MOST (SEVERAL
INCHES ALLEGHENIES) WHILE 90TH PCNTL IS A SOLID 10-15". IF THE STORM
DOES COME TO FRUITION, COULD BE RATHER IMPACTFUL AS SEEN IN WPC
PWSSI PROBS. COULD ALSO BE A SWING AND A MISS. TIME WILL TELL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEK, WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES
STARTING WEDNESDAY.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS YIELDS INCREASED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW. 850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND TO 5-8C, WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S (WARMEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS). THESE TEMPERATURES COULD BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC BASED ON THE
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SOME INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES STARTING
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON PROBABILITIES FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES, THURSDAY
COULD END UP BEING COOLER AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED
VERY CLOSE TO, IF NOT, OVER THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES
DOWN QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE EARLIER GUIDANCE AS A RESULT,
BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY A BIT.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
PROBABLY IN MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS AS LAST NIGHT. LIFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED YET AGAIN AT ALL EXCEPT CHO. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE MORE LOW CLOUDS VERSUS
FOG, BUT EITHER WAY, IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY. THIS
WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH, PERHAPS NOT AS LONG
AS WE SAW TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE OFFSHORE.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS A WIND SHIFT THURSDAY. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS INCREASE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK DUE TO A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER/NEAR THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
CALM WINDS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY
YIELD MORE FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE VISIBILITIES
DROPPING BELOW ONE NAUTICAL MILE YET AGAIN, SO MAY NEED A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THAT DOES MATERIALIZE. THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF MID-LATE MORNING.
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND WATER TEMPS
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER, WOULDN'T EXPECT MANY 18 KNOT WIND GUSTS TO
MIX DOWN. DO THINK THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SMALLER WATERWAYS, BUT LIKELY WILL BE BETTER HANDLED WITH AN
MWS AS NECESSARY.
SUB-SCA WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THOUGH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DUE TO A NEARBY STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THURSDAY/FRIDAY SPECIFICALLY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE SLOWLY RISING AS ONSHORE WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL
WATER UP THE CHESAPEAKE. MANY, IF NOT MOST, SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ARE
GOING TO REACH ACTION STAGE DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY. ANNAPOLIS
IS THE MOST LIKELY TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THAT DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS DROP A BIT AS
WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY REACH ACTION
STAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJL/CPB/KRR
AVIATION...CJL/CPB/KRR
MARINE...CJL/CPB/KRR
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