110
FXUS61 KLWX 180830
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
330 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN MARYLAND
THAT IS SLOWLY TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH/WEST INTO THE DC
METRO. ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS PERIODS OF SHOWERS,
CHANGING TEMPERATURES, AND MORNING FOG THROUGH END OF WEEK.
- 2) COLDER THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL STORM, WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS PERIODS OF
SHOWERS, CHANGING TEMPERATURES, AND MORNING FOG THROUGH END OF WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN VA TONIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MEANDERS NORTH
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT BRINGS AN END TO
PRECIPITATION.
THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA, THOUGH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE GOING TO BE IN THE
ALLEGHENIES AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF THIS
MORNING TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE - IN THE LOW TO MID
60S SOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER. THERE'LL BE A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT OF
MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MD WHERE CLOUDS
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. COOLER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE RAINIEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED FROM
WHAT NBM HAD AS IT IS STRUGGLING TO DEAL WITH THE CAD SETUP. ON AND
OFF RAIN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND CONTINUES THROUGH 10
AM THIS MORNING, WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT FOG EXPANDS FURTHER
SOUTH/WEST. THE FOG GETS SCOURED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST MD IS LIKELY TO HOLD ON TO FOG/LOW CLOUDS THE LONGEST. FOG
IS LIKELY TO BE A POSSIBILITY DURING EACH NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... COLDER THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
STORM, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF LEADER-FOLLOW SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WITH LEADER
COMING FRIDAY AND FOLLOWER SUNDAY. UPPER-LEVEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST
FEW SYNOPTIC RUNS IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A SUNDAY SYSTEM TO MATERIALIZE.
MORE BLOCKING IN THE ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE GOING UP OFFSHORE HAS
TRENDED TO MORE AMPLIFICATION AND MODELS HINTING AT A STORM
(POTENTIALLY BIGGER). HOWEVER, JUST AS MANY ENSEMBLES SHOW A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH RIDGING AND SUPPRESSED STORM OUT TO SEA. MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO BE PLENTIFUL; THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH COLD AIR
THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH. WOULD NEED A STRONGER SYSTEM TO GET
IMPACTFUL SNOW OUTSIDE TERRAIN IN ORDER TO GET MORE COLD AIR BROUGHT
INTO SYSTEM. EVEN IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP, MAY NOT BE ALL SNOW
OUTSIDE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN MIXING IN. OVERALL H5 PATTERN DOES
SUPPORT UPSLOPE SNOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. TO SHOW THE
UNCERTAINTY, THE EPS 50TH PERCENTILE IS CURRENTLY A COATING TO AN
INCH FOR MOST (SEVERAL INCHES IN THE ALLEGHENIES), WHILE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE IS A SOLID 10-15". IF THE STORM DOES COME TO FRUITION, IT
COULD BE RATHER IMPACTFUL AS SEEN IN WPC PWSSI PROBS. COULD ALSO BE
A SWING AND A MISS; TIME WILL TELL. REGARDLESS OF THIS PRECIPITATION
UNCERTAINTY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A PERIOD OF
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, AND THE START OF NEXT
WEEK COULD TREND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR MOST
OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT BWI/MTN THIS MORNING DUE TO
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE CLOUDS/FOG COULD REACH DCA BY
AROUND SUNRISE, THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL PRODUCE IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS AT DCA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IAD EXPERIENCES SOME
IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THERE. THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG START TO ERODE MID MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST,
STARTING AT IAD/DCA. THE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND BWI/MTN UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO MOST, IF NOT ALL, TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT
AN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINALS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TOWARDS SUNDAY, PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR DEPENDENT
ON A SIGNIFICANT LOW CAUSING LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES
ACROSS TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY ALIGNING
WITH THIS LOW.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE POTOMAC SOUTH OF INDIAN HEAD AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF
NORTH BEACH WHERE GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED. SUB-SCA WINDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DUE TO
A NEARBY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURSDAY-SATURDAY; WINDS
WILL START TO PICK UP ON SUNDAY, AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY ONCE SUNDAY'S LOW BECOMES COASTAL AND STARTS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY STILL SHOWING BELOW GALE FORCE CONDITIONS, BUT
SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO
DECREASE AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY, OR AFTER THIS WEEKEND'S LOW MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
IN MEANDERING SOUTHWEST TO EAST WINDS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
NEAR THE AREA. SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ACTION STAGE
DURING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ005-006-
008-011-014-505>508.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>532-
538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT
AVIATION...KRR/SRT
MARINE...KRR/SRT
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