599
FXUS61 KLWX 181523
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, ALTHOUGH SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES PERSIST NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THIS AREA AS IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS PERIODS OF SHOWERS,
CHANGING TEMPERATURES, AND MORNING FOG THROUGH END OF WEEK.
- 2) COLDER THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL STORM, WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS PERIODS OF
SHOWERS, CHANGING TEMPERATURES, AND MORNING FOG THROUGH END OF WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN VA TONIGHT. THE FRONT REMAINS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MEANDERS NORTH
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT BRINGS AN END TO
PRECIPITATION.
THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA, THOUGH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE GOING TO BE IN THE
ALLEGHENIES AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER. RECENT CAMS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE SHOWERS ARE,
HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER.
THERE'LL BE A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT OF MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MD WHERE CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
COOLER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE RAINIEST
DAY OF THE ENTIRE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED FROM WHAT NBM
HAD AS IT IS STRUGGLING TO DEAL WITH THE CAD SETUP. ON AND OFF
RAIN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE VISIBILITIES ARE GRADUALLY RISING, NORTHEAST MD IS LIKELY
TO HOLD ON TO FOG/LOW CLOUDS THE LONGEST. FOG IS LIKELY TO BE A
POSSIBILITY DURING EACH NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... COLDER THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
STORM, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF LEADER-FOLLOW SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WITH LEADER
COMING FRIDAY AND FOLLOWER SUNDAY. UPPER-LEVEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST
FEW SYNOPTIC RUNS IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A SUNDAY SYSTEM TO MATERIALIZE.
MORE BLOCKING IN THE ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE GOING UP OFFSHORE HAS
TRENDED TO MORE AMPLIFICATION AND MODELS HINTING AT A STORM
(POTENTIALLY BIGGER). HOWEVER, JUST AS MANY ENSEMBLES SHOW A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH RIDGING AND SUPPRESSED STORM OUT TO SEA. MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO BE PLENTIFUL; THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH COLD AIR
THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH. WOULD NEED A STRONGER SYSTEM TO GET
IMPACTFUL SNOW OUTSIDE TERRAIN IN ORDER TO GET MORE COLD AIR BROUGHT
INTO SYSTEM. EVEN IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP, MAY NOT BE ALL SNOW
OUTSIDE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN MIXING IN. OVERALL H5 PATTERN DOES
SUPPORT UPSLOPE SNOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. TO SHOW THE
UNCERTAINTY, THE EPS 50TH PERCENTILE IS CURRENTLY A COATING TO AN
INCH FOR MOST (SEVERAL INCHES IN THE ALLEGHENIES), WHILE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE IS A SOLID 10-15". IF THE STORM DOES COME TO FRUITION, IT
COULD BE RATHER IMPACTFUL AS SEEN IN WPC WSSI-P PROBS. COULD
ALSO BE A SWING AND A MISS; TIME WILL TELL. REGARDLESS OF THIS
PRECIPITATION UNCERTAINTY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT FOR A PERIOD OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM, AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK COULD TREND SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOG CONTINUES AT BWI/MTN WITH MVFR BR AT MRB, IAD, AND DCA. THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, STARTING AT IAD/DCA. THE CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND BWI/MTN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN TO MOST, IF NOT ALL, TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT AN
ISSUE FOR THE TERMINALS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TOWARDS SUNDAY, PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR DEPENDENT
ON A SIGNIFICANT LOW CAUSING LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES
ACROSS TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY ALIGNING
WITH THIS LOW.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE POTOMAC SOUTH OF INDIAN HEAD AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF
NORTH BEACH WHERE GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED. RECENT MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING LOW LEVELS ARE MORE STABLE THAN ORIGINALLY
PREDICTED, DELAYING ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS (CONFINED TO THE
MD/VA BORDER AS OF 10 AM), AND POTENTIALLY ULTIMATELY
PREVENTING ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING FOR SOME OF THE
AREA. SUB-SCA WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DUE TO A NEARBY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURSDAY-SATURDAY; WINDS
WILL START TO PICK UP ON SUNDAY, AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY ONCE SUNDAY'S LOW BECOMES COASTAL AND STARTS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY STILL SHOWING BELOW GALE FORCE CONDITIONS, BUT
SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO
DECREASE AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY, OR AFTER THIS WEEKEND'S LOW MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
IN MEANDERING SOUTHWEST TO EAST WINDS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
NEAR THE AREA. SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ACTION STAGE
DURING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
534-536-537-541>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/KRR/SRT
MARINE...ADS/KRR/SRT
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