279
FXUS61 KLWX 190232
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
932 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE 18Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE HAVE SHOWN AN
UPTICK IN SNOW PROBABILITIES FOR THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, TRENDS ARE LIKELY NOT DONE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION AS ADDITIONAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE COMES IN.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A MEANDERING FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN, CHANGING
TEMPERATURES, AND MORNING FOG THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEARBY BRINGS A SLIGHT WINTER STORM
THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MEANDERING FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN,
CHANGING TEMPERATURES, AND MORNING FOG THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE PAST 6 TO 8 HOURS, THE FRONTAL ZONE INITIALLY LYING
PARALLEL TO THE POTOMAC RIVER HAS MADE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
AS OF THE 00Z/7 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER, THIS BOUNDARY NOW SITS ALONG I-70 WHILE EXTENDING UP
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR EXPANDING
TO THE NORTH, THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS FURTHER MOISTENED. A NUMBER
OF OBSERVATIONS HAVE SEEN A 4 TO 8 DEGREE RISE IN DEW POINTS.
FURTHER, THE 00Z IAD SOUNDING REVEALED A 0.30 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISE UP TO 0.93 INCHES.
WHILE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA, A SERIES OF WEAK RIPPLES IN
THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE SPAWNED SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THESE HAVE LARGELY STAYED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-64 WHILE
AREAS TO THE NORTH REMAIN UNDERNEATH OVERCAST SKIES. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF MOISTURE IN THE SURFACE TO 750-MB LAYER, EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN NEW
ENGLAND WILL SHOVE THE MENTIONED FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE COLD GROUND,
FOG LOOKS PROBABLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE, ESPECIALLY IN A SIMILAR AREA (CENTRAL-
NORTHEAST MD) TO THIS MORNING.
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE MAY
DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT IN A DRY SLOT,
ALTHOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE
WITH THE FRONT STILL STALLED OVERHEAD. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENIES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE LOCATION OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S TO THE NORTHEAST AND
POTENTIALLY NEARING 60 TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH A MARITIME AIRMASS
IN PLACE, FOGGY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, ALTHOUGH DENSE FOG MAY BE LESS PROBABLE GIVEN SLIGHT
MIXING AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN.
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, A MORE NOTABLE COLD
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE STALLED FRONT ON FRIDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
BENEFICIAL GIVEN CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM 40S TO 60S WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS COOL STABLE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT SCOUR OUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND PRIOR
TO SUNSET.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MUTED
AS THE PARENT TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE ANOTHER
DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEARBY BRINGS A SLIGHT WINTER
STORM THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
FURTHER COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DIVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AND TRACKING OFFSHORE
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A
SLIGHT WINTER STORM THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH UNCERTAINTY
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH, TRACK, AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW MIXING IN OVERNIGHT. WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
BECOMING PRIMARILY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS HIGHEST IN THE
ALLEGHENIES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE FAVORABLE, ALTHOUGH
GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEGREE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FURTHER EAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF MINOR IMPACTS VIA WPC'S PROBABILISTIC WSSI. WITH
THIS EVENT BEING 4 DAYS OUT, THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
ANY VARIABLE TO CHANGE AND THUS GREATLY ALTERING THE FORECAST.
IF THIS THREAT MATERIALIZES, TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER.
QUIET WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS EXPECTED, VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BRIEFLY RETURNED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE 00Z IAD SOUNDING,
THERE IS A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AS SUCH,
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN LOWER AS THE COLUMN COOLS.
THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL LIKELY SINK TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
ARE IN A SIMILAR AREA TO LAST NIGHT (BWI/MTN). BY THURSDAY
MORNING, WINDS TURN EASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY,
PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF HOW ANY FOG
TRANSITIONS TO LOW CLOUDS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH RAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN.
REDUCED CIGS/VSBY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT CAN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TERMINALS ON SATURDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE), AND
THEREFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
WHILE A BRUNT OF THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING, SOME
UPTICK IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WIND INCREASE.
OTHERWISE, THE BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG OVER THE WATERS. THUS, ADDITIONAL MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN, EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE COAST, AND SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
IN MEANDERING SOUTHWEST TO EAST WINDS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
NEAR THE AREA. SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ACTION STAGE
DURING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY, WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AT THE MORE SENSITIVE TIDAL LOCATIONS AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/BRO
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/BRO
MARINE...ADS/AVS/BRO
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