018
FXUS61 KLWX 191529
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1029 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY (CRITERIA LESS THAN 1 NM) HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH NOON. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/4 SM) HAS DEVELOPED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS MARYLAND, NORTHERN VIRGINIA, AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA, BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY MIDDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT
ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT A COOL DAY WHERE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ARRIVED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STALLED
FRONT MEANDERS NEARBY.
- 2) LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEARBY BRINGS A SLIGHT WINTER STORM
THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
STALLED FRONT MEANDERS NEARBY.
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG HAVE ADVECTED IN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH SOME LINGERING
RADIATION FOG WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE PUSHING NORTH INTO THE AREA, BUT NOT MUCH IS
REACHING THE GROUND AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT FULLY SATURATED.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING
TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THAT SPREADS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STEADY MODERATE
RAIN, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON
TO THIS EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE
ALLEGHENIES THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION FROM THE OH VALLEY MOVES
EAST. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS A BIT TRICK SINCE IT'LL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THOSE TO
THE NORTH WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE LOW 40S, AND THOSE TO THE
SOUTH REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.
A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A DRY SLOT POSSIBLE, SO PRECIP COULD CEASE
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS EVENING. FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT, THOUGH DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY. THIS DRAGS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, THEN COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. AN
EVEN TIGHTER TEMP GRADIENT IS LIKELY FRIDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW
TO MID 60S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY / CENTRAL VA, WITH 50S TO THE
NORTH/EAST AND POSSIBLY ONLY UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST MD.
NOT MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEARBY BRINGS A SLIGHT WINTER
STORM THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A HIGH ENERGY BUT LOW PREDICTABILITY PATTERN LOOMS FOR LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE VERY AMPLIFIED BUT IN FLUX AS
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INDUCING A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE-BUILDING EVENT OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA COMES WITH
LOW PREDICTABILITY DUE TO DATA SPARSE REGIONS OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC. MEANWHILE, A PAIR OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOWS INTERACT/MERGE
OVER MARITIME CANADA, WITH INHERENT LOW PREDICTABILITY WITH TWO
CUTOFF LOWS INTERACTING.
IF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE-BUILDING EVENT TAKES PLACE A BIT FURTHER WEST
NEAR 120 W LONGITUDE ON SATURDAY, DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR PHASING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SUBSEQUENT LOW TRACK HUGGING THE COAST
WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THIS SCENARIO, AIDED BY DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING AND A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF COLD AIR GIVEN THE UPPER LOWS
OVER MARITIME CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO RIDGE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE IS AN APPEARANCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE IN A SUBSET
OF MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST COUPLE CYCLES, GIVEN INTERACTION
BETWEEN A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A BIT MORE DISTANT
OFFSHORE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THIS COULD FACTOR INTO PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT.
THE 00Z ENSEMBLE SUITES (EUROPEAN, GFS, CANADIAN, EURO AIFS) ALL NOW
HAVE AT LEAST SOME SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARD HIGHER QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE LAST
3-4 MODEL CYCLES. STILL, THE SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE WITH MANY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING LITTLE TO NO SNOW, WHILE OTHERS DO SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE ARE SEVERAL VARIABLES AT PLAY HERE THAT LIKELY WON'T BE
RESOLVED WITH MUCH MORE CLARITY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL
DETERMINE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COUPLE OF STRUNG OUT WAVES
PASSING THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE, A MODESTLY IMPACTFUL PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS, AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT.
OF NOTE, THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE LATER IN THE SEASON BECOMES A FACTOR
ESPECIALLY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE DAY.
COLD AIR WILL ALSO FILTERING INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM IN
QUESTION APPROACHES, RATHER THAN BEING LOCKED-IN BEFOREHAND, WHICH
OFFERS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY IN P-TYPE.
REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW THE DETAILS OF THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM
PLAY OUT, ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S (30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS) WITH LOWS IN THE 20S (TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS) ARE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME MIDWEEK MODERATION
AFTER.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS A FRONT PUSHED SOUTH. SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENTS TO VISIBILITY HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
CEILINGS MAY NOT RISE TOO MUCH. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A STEADY RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. DRIZZLE AND FOG/MIST PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE FRIDAY LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK, STRENGTH, AND TIMING OF A COASTAL
LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF THIS
LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST, AND IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLAY
THEN RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NE TO NW WINDS
OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES BY.
MARINE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL NOON
TODAY. SHOULD SEE VISIBILITIES RISE ABOVE 1 NM THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SUB-SCA EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
THOUGH THEY COULD APPROACH CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR- SCA WINDS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS IS LIKELY TO BE SPORADIC
ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. RAIN IS EXPECTED
AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DENSE MARINE FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A LARGE AND POTENTIALLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS INTRODUCES TO
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS IN NE TO NW FLOW, WITH RAIN
AND/OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ACTION STAGE DURING
HIGH TIDE EACH DAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AT THE MORE SENSITIVE TIDAL LOCATIONS AS A WORST CASE
SCENARIO.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/KRR
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/KRR
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/KRR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page