711
FXUS61 KLWX 230241
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
941 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ALLEGHENIES). SOUTHERN BALTIMORE,
ANNE ARUNDEL, AND SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES WERE DOWNGRADED
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
-2) MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
AS OF 915 PM, SNOWFALL HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY, POTOMAC HIGHLANDS, AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA, WHERE EARLIER
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORMS WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. FURTHER NORTHEAST, SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS LIGHT IN NATURE, WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF TO OUR EAST. THERE
ARE SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW FROM NEAR FREDERICK
AND HAGERSTOWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE DC METRO ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS LINGERING NEARBY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SNOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW LIKELY
CLEARING THE DC METRO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AM, AND THEN BALTIMORE
CITY BY AROUND DAYBREAK. SNOW MAY LINGER MUCH LONGER ACROSS
HARFORD AND CECIL COUNTIES, WITH LIGHT SNOW POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE
IN THE ALLEGHENIES WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO
BRING DOWN TOTALS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND, AS THE
HEAVIEST BANDING ENDED UP SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. BALTIMORE DOWN TO ANNAPOLIS HAS ENDED UP
IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM WITHIN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
BANDING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THEIR WEST, AND HEAVIER
BANDING TO THEIR EAST CLOSER TO THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
COASTAL LOW. AS A RESULT, SOUTHERN BALTIMORE, ANNE ARUNDEL, AND
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO STAY IN PLACE
FURTHER NORTH FROM NORTHERN BALTIMORE EASTWARD TO CECIL COUNTY,
SINCE A BIT MORE SNOW ACCUMULATED THERE EARLIER TODAY, AND SNOW
WILL ALSO LINGER IN THOSE LOCATIONS A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST SEE:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER.
KEY MESSAGE 2..MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE EAST COAST, TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST BEING A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED NORTH OF THE AREA, SNOW AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, RAIN IS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS DROUGHT
REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE DC METRO BETWEEN ROUGHLY 1
AND 3 AM, AND CLEAR BWI BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT, AND REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS APPEAR
LIKELY WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN. WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHIFT TO WESTERLY IN THE EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY. WINDS GUST 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY AND GUSTING 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS WINDS PICK
UP OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFFSHORE. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WINDS
GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHIFT TO WESTERLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO
SOUTHERLY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST, NORTHWESTERLY GALES WILL
CAUSE A SHARP DROP IN WATER LEVELS (BLOWOUT DURING LOW TIDE) MONDAY.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH LOW WATER THRESHOLDS, ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT LOW.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-
017-018-503-505-507-508.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ011-013-
014-016-504-506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ031-505-506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ053>055-
057-526-527.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
VAZ503.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ503.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
WVZ501-505.
MARINE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...KJP/KLW
AVIATION...KLW/KJP/EST
MARINE...KLW/KJP/EST
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