826
FXUS61 KLWX 230810
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
310 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE WASHINGTON DC METRO. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED FOR REFREEZE/ICY PATCHES THIS MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
-1)PLAN FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THIS MORNING'S
COMMUTE AS SNOW ENDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY AND BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON.
-2) FAST MOVING SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1....PLAN FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THIS
MORNING'S COMMUTE AS SNOW ENDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CHILLY AND
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH AND NOR'EASTER (OFF THE DELMARVA COAST)
LIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. RADAR AS OF 3AM HAS THE LAST OF THE
MODERATE SNOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF BALTIMORE AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. RATES OF UP TO 1"/HR HAVE
BEEN NOTED IN THIS BAND WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO EXIT NORTHEAST MD BETWEEN NOW-6AM. LIGHT
SNOW LINGERS ELSEWHERE EAST OF US-15 FROM THE CATOCTINS DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN MD. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WITH RATES LESS THEN 0.10"/HR. MEANWHILE, UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WESTERN FAVORED SLOPES WITH
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SPILLOVER FURTHER EAST INTO WESTERN MINERAL
AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND FROUDE NUMBERS AROUND 1 TO 1.5 (NOT
FULLY BLOCKED FLOW). ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOME SNOW LINGERING OVER THE CATOCTINS AND FAR NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF MD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND POTENTIALLY MIDDAY.
SKIES WILL TREND OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START WITH SOME
BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL WORK BACK INTO THE MID 30S AND LOW 40S
(20S MOUNTAINS) ALLOWING FOR SOME MELT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE SOUTH AND WEST OF WASHINGTON DC WITH HEADLINES LIKELY TO
LINGER NORTH AND EAST OF BALTIMORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
COMMUTE. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE CHUNK OF THE REGION THAT RECEIVED SNOWFALL YESTERDAY
EVENING INTO THIS MORNING, GIVEN THE REFREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW FREEZING. DESPITE THE WIND THIS MORNING, ICY
PATCHES HAVE BEEN NOTED BY HIGHWAY CREWS AND SPOTTERS ON
ELEVATED/UNTREATED SURFACES. WINDS TODAY SHOULD HELP DRY THOSE
REMAINING SURFACES OUT ALTHOUGH THE REFREEZE POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLAY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE
20S (TEENS MOUNTAINS)
AS FOR WINDS, EXPECT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AREAWIDE OUTSIDE OF THE
CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT. GUSTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO
25 MPH SINCE THEY WILL BE OF FURTHER PROXIMITY FROM THE PACKED
GRADIENT AROUND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PLUS SHADOWED A BIT FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SPEAKING OF THE MOUNTAINS, WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR BOTH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS WELL
AS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
AT TIMES. THIS WILL TANK WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000
FEET. WITH THE WIND WILL COME THE CONCERN FOR DOWNED TREES AND
POWERLINES GIVEN THE ADDED WEIGHT OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2..FAST MOVING SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED IN NATURE, BUT SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING FURTHER EAST. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE ALLEGHENIES DURING THAT TIME.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND DOWN IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AS THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER, AND WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE, BUT MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A SOAKING
RAIN, AND A FEW SHOW SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTH OF I-66/US-50.
PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING AMONGST GUIDANCE REMAIN BETWEEN
20 TO 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STILL DEALING WITH POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS WITH EVEN A FEW LIFR
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS TERMINALS IN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MD AS WELL
AS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY. ELSEWHERE IT'S A MASH
BETWEEN VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS SNOW DEPARTS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS NOW THE
IAD/DC AND EXITING BWI AS OF 8Z/3AM. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER AT DCA/BWI/MTN THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO HANG ON NORTH AND EAST OF BWI THROUGH
14Z/9AM. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN A FASTER PROGRESSION
OF THE COASTAL LOW LIFTING NORTH OFFSHORE. EXPECT A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL ENSUE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
NOR'EASTER AND INCUMBENT BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS
THE CORRIDOR WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES DOWN TOWARD CHO. EXPECT
GUSTS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT LULL THIS AFTERNOON
AND ANOTHER ROUND WIND AROUND 00Z/7PM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL INITIALLY
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITHIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS WELL AS WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT.SUB-SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING,
NORTHWESTERLY GALES WILL CAUSE A SHARP DROP IN WATER LEVELS DURING
LOW TIDE. SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH LOW WATER THRESHOLDS. THIS
INCLUDES ANNAPOLIS, CHESAPEAKE CITY, AND ALEXANDRIA WHERE ANOMALIES
CONTINUE TO FALL.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ003>006-008-017-018-503-505-507-508.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ053-054-526-527.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ503.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ503-507-508.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ503.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ501-505.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...EST
AVIATION...KJP/EST
MARINE...KJP/EST
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