126
FXUS61 KLWX 241923
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
223 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DROPPED PARTS OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND INTRODUCED LOW
END LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN NE MD EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
-2) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
-3)AFTER A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN REINTRODUCED TO THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES (I.E GARRETT, WESTERN GRANT, WESTERN PENDLETON, AND
WESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES) FROM 03Z-15Z/10PM TONIGHT-10AM
WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PENDING ANY HEAVIER RATES DURING THE
PREDAWN PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL
FALL. SNOW RATIOS WON'T BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE RUNNING BETWEEN
10:1 TO START INCREASING TO 12-13:1 DURING THE THE EVENT. THIS
WILL YIELD A WET SNOW WITH AVERAGE QPF BETWEEN 0.30-0.50 INCHES.
A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE COLD AIR DRAINAGE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF GARRETT DOWN INTO PENDLETON COUNTIES
(MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FEET) AS TEMPS WARM WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLAN
FOR ADDITIONAL TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ALONG I-68/US-40 WEST OF
FROSTBURG, MD, US-219 FROM THE PA/MD LINE TO WV LINE, US-48 WEST
OF MOOREFIELD, WV, AND US-33/WV-28 WEST OF FRANKLIN, WV. SOME
SPILLOVER IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST ALTHOUGH FROUDE NUMBERS WILL
INCREASE FROM 0 TO 3 DURING THE EVENT LEADING TO PREDOMINANTLY
BLOCKED FLOW.
ELSEWHERE, A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RISE BEFORE DAYBREAK AS A WARM FRONT
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO
OBSERVE ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG THE
MD/PA AND UP INTO NE MD WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY HANG ON TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS THE LONGEST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS
ARE POSSIBLE IF COOLER TEMPERATURES HOLD LATER INTO THE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DESCENDING FRONT WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN WITH RECENT
GUIDANCE, BUT MOST GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MOST THE REGION. THE NAM IS ONLY MAIN OUTLIER BETWEEN ALL
GUIDANCE IN THAT IT KEEPS OUR WHOLE REGION ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FOCUSED TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN, BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD CREEP INTO AREAS ALONG THE PA/MD BORDER IF THE NORTHERN
SOLUTIONS WORK OUT. IN GENERAL, PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BENEFICIAL IN NATURE WITH BETWEEN 0.25 AND HALF INCH OF
LIQUID CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AFTER A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE WEEKEND, A
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE REGION STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON SATURDAY, AND
WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES BORDERING 50F-60F TO START THE WEEKEND OFF
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A COLD FRONT BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL PUSH
THROUGH SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT MONDAY. MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY BOTH ON PROJECTED FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCOMING FRONT, SO SOME SORT OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET. HIGH PRESSURE COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD MEAN THAT COOLER TEMPS PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH, BUT ADDITIONAL
HAZARDS AT THIS TIME WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS MODEL
GUIDANCE ALIGNS.
.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS WILL GIVE WAY TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS EVENTUALLY DROPPING DOWN INTO 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE COMING HOURS AND SLOWLY SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE CHO TERMINAL THIS EVENING, BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD CREEP
INTO THE THE REMAINDER OF OUR TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE BWI/MTN TERMINALS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO OBSERVE SNOW
THAT POTENTIALLY CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD DECKS LIKELY FOR MOST TERMINALS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS LARGELY EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND,
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT COULD BRING PERIODS OF PROLONGED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY RELATIVELY CALM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS PICKING BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FOR ALL WATERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. SUBSCA CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY OVER ALL WATERS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL FLIP FROM NORTHWEST FRIDAY TO
SOUTH BY EARLY SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY RELATIVELY CALM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH SCA CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY RISING IN PROBABILITY ON SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
STILL BORDERLINE (16-18 KNOTS), SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
BEFORE SEEING IF SCAS ARE NECESSARY FOR THIS WEEKEND. A WIND SHIFT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED BY EARLY SATURDAY, BUT THIS WILL
LIKELY SHIFT NW AGAIN WITH ANY INCOMING FRONTS ON SUNDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN RISING WATER LEVELS
THAT COULD PUSH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS, ESPECIALLY AT
ANNAPOLIS. IN FACT, SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE BRINGS
ANNAPOLIS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, BUT THE BREVITY OF
FAVORABLE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING THAT OCCURS BELOW THIS
LEVEL.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530-535-536.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ531>534-538>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...JMG/EST/SRT
AVIATION...JMG/EST/SRT
MARINE...JMG/EST/SRT
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