039
FXUS61 KLWX 250217
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DROPPED PARTS OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND INTRODUCED LOW
END LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN NE MD EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
-2) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
-3)AFTER A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN REINTRODUCED TO THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES (I.E GARRETT, WESTERN GRANT, WESTERN PENDLETON, AND
WESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES) FROM 03Z-15Z/10PM TONIGHT-10AM
WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PENDING ANY HEAVIER RATES DURING THE
PREDAWN PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL
FALL. SNOW RATIOS WON'T BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE RUNNING BETWEEN
10:1 TO START INCREASING TO 12-13:1 DURING THE THE EVENT. THIS
WILL YIELD A WET SNOW WITH AVERAGE QPF BETWEEN 0.30-0.50 INCHES.
A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE COLD AIR DRAINAGE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF GARRETT DOWN INTO PENDLETON COUNTIES
(MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FEET) AS TEMPS WARM WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLAN
FOR ADDITIONAL TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ALONG I-68/US-40 WEST OF
FROSTBURG, MD, US-219 FROM THE PA/MD LINE TO WV LINE, US-48 WEST
OF MOOREFIELD, WV, AND US-33/WV-28 WEST OF FRANKLIN, WV. SOME
SPILLOVER IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST ALTHOUGH FROUDE NUMBERS WILL
INCREASE FROM 0 TO 3 DURING THE EVENT LEADING TO PREDOMINANTLY
BLOCKED FLOW.
ELSEWHERE, A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO OBSERVE ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE
ALONG THE MD/PA AND UP INTO NE MD. A QUICK COATING OF SNOW COULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON, WITH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
50S TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, CAUSING ANY LITTLE SNOW THAT
DOES FALL TO MELT. EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, THEY'LL MAKE IT INTO
THE MID-UPPER 30S, ALLOWING FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW THAT
FALLS THERE LATER TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DESCENDING FRONT WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN WITH RECENT
RUNS, BUT MOST GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BULK
OF THE REGION. THE NAM IS ONLY MAIN OUTLIER BETWEEN ALL
GUIDANCE IN THAT IT KEEPS OUR WHOLE REGION ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FOCUSED TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN, BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD CREEP INTO AREAS ALONG THE PA/MD BORDER IF THE NORTHERN
SOLUTIONS WORK OUT. IN GENERAL, PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BENEFICIAL IN NATURE WITH BETWEEN 0.25 AND HALF INCH OF
LIQUID CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AFTER A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE WEEKEND, A
COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE REGION STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON SATURDAY, AND
WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES BORDERING 50F-60F TO START THE WEEKEND OFF
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A COLD FRONT BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL PUSH
THROUGH SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT MONDAY. MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY BOTH ON PROJECTED FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCOMING FRONT, SO SOME SORT OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET. HIGH PRESSURE COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD MEAN THAT COOLER TEMPS PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH, BUT ADDITIONAL
HAZARDS AT THIS TIME WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS MODEL
GUIDANCE ALIGNS.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS WILL GIVE WAY TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS EVENTUALLY DROPPING DOWN INTO 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE COMING HOURS AND SLOWLY SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE CHO TERMINAL THIS EVENING, BUT SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
COULD CREEP INTO THE THE REMAINDER OF OUR TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BWI/MTN TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE TO OBSERVE SNOW THAT COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD DECKS LIKELY FOR MOST TERMINALS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS LARGELY EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND,
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT COULD BRING PERIODS OF PROLONGED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY RELATIVELY CALM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS PICKING BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY OVER ALL WATERS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY RELATIVELY CALM ON SATURDAY, WITH
SCA CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY RISING IN PROBABILITY ON SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE STILL BORDERLINE (16-18 KNOTS), SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR BEFORE SEEING IF SCAS ARE NECESSARY FOR THIS WEEKEND. A
WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
SATURDAY, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT NW AGAIN WITH ANY INCOMING
FRONTS ON SUNDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN RISING WATER LEVELS
THAT COULD PUSH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS, ESPECIALLY AT
ANNAPOLIS. IN FACT, SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE BRINGS
ANNAPOLIS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, BUT THE BREVITY OF
FAVORABLE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING THAT OCCURS BELOW THIS
LEVEL.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ509-
510.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530-535-536.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
543.
DISCUSSION...JMG/EST/SRT/KJP
AVIATION...JMG/EST/SRT/KJP
MARINE...JMG/EST/SRT/KJP
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