199
FXUS61 KLWX 251051
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
551 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES OF WESTERN
GARRETT, WESTERN GRANT, AND WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES THROUGH 10AM.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN TODAY AS A SERIES OF
FRONTS PUSH THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES THROUGH 10AM THIS MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES FOR
WESTERN GARRETT, WESTERN GRANT AND WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES
UNTIL 1PM THIS AFTERNOON.
-2) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
-3) WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREATS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES THROUGH 10AM THIS MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES
FOR WESTERN GRANT AND WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES UNTIL 1PM THIS
AFTERNOON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES (I.E
GARRETT, WESTERN GRANT, WESTERN PENDLETON, AND WESTERN HIGHLAND
COUNTIES) THROUGH 10AM THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE (AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET). SNOW RATIOS WON'T BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE RUNNING
BETWEEN 10:1 TO START INCREASING TO 12-13:1 DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
EVENT. THIS WILL YIELD A WET SNOW WITH AVERAGE QPF BETWEEN 0.25-0.45
INCHES. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE COLD AIR
DRAINAGE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF GARRETT DOWN INTO
PENDLETON/HIGHLAND COUNTIES AS TEMPS WARM TOWARD FREEZING LATER THIS
MORNING. PLAN FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL ALONG I-68/US-40 WEST OF
FROSTBURG, MD, US-219 FROM THE PA/MD LINE TO WV LINE, US-48 WEST OF
MOOREFIELD, WV, AND US-33/WV-28 WEST OF FRANKLIN, WV. SOME SPILLOVER
IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST ALTHOUGH FROUDE NUMBERS WILL INCREASE FROM 0
TO 3 DURING THE EVENT LEADING TO PREDOMINANTLY BLOCKED FLOW.
ELSEWHERE, A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY NORTH
OF I-66/US-50 WHERE THE BETTER LIFT RESIDES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CATOCTINS, PARR'S RIDGE, AND LOCALLY HIGH
SPOTS ALONG THE PA/MD BORDER WHERE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW WITH THE MAIN LIFT/MOISTURE
SOURCE REMAINING NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA. ANY RESIDUAL SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AND POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
OUTSIDE OF RAIN/SNOW THREAT, WILL BE THE WIND. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER RIDGES OF WESTERN GARRETT, WESTERN GRANT,
AND WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES ABOVE 3500 FEET COULD SEE GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH. AS OF 3AM, ALREADY SEEING 49 KTS/ 56 MPH GUSTS AT
BEAR ROCKS/CABIN MTN ALONG THE GRANT CO. & TUCKER CO. WV BORDER
AS WELL AS 39 KTS/45 MPH AT KEYSERS RIDGE.
ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE MID 40S AND LOW TO MID 50S. OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL WITH FILTERED BREAKS OF SUN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-66/US-50
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SWITCHING THE WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S AND MID 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE VA/NC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY BEFORE EJECTING EAST ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. 00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LOCAL AREA WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS AREA SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 AND EAST OF I-95 COMPARED TO
AREAS NORTH. CAM GUIDANCE FROM THE NAMNEST, NSSL, ARW, AND HRRR
ACTUALLY SUPPRESS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LIMITING
IMPACTS TO FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTHEAST VA AND NC. THIS ALIGNS WITH
THE CURRENT 00Z ECMWF, EPS, AND UKMET WHICH THROW A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL VA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MD DURING THE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME. THE GFS,
ICON, AND GEFS ALL REMAIN OUTLIERS WITH A HEAVIER SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION AND EVEN THE RISK FOR SOME WINTRY WEATHER NORTH OF
I-66/US-50 THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EACH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS ARE DICTATED BY THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
SAGGING SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS THE HIGH DESCENDING QUICKER FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/ EASTERN CANADA LEADING TO MORE SUPPRESSION OF THE LOW
TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FLATTER/ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION GUIDING THE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH ALL
THAT SAID, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 0.25"
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION. FAR SOUTHERN MD, THE NORTHERN
NECK OF VA, AND THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64
COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS BASED UPON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD FOR QPF ALTHOUGH
ANYTHING WILL HELP WITH RECENT DROUGHT CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREATS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FOLLOWING A DRY WEEKEND, SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PIVOTING TO THE NORTH
WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE
TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH THE EVENT
BEING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE REMAINS A GOOD
DEAL OF SPREAD WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY, THE DISCREPANCIES ARE WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z GFS HAS SNOW
STAYING ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER WITH THOSE FARTHER SOUTH GETTING A
MIX OF SLEET/SNOW. THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN HAS PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES, BUT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST SHIFTS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5,000 TO 9,000 FEET. SOME
TEMPORARY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WORKING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. DID ADD PROB30S IN THE
CORRIDOR AT BWI/DCA ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR 5-6SM -RASN
THROUGH 12Z/7AM. THE BIGGER CONCERN TO AVIATORS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE LLWS. HI-RES CAMS AND SOUNDING CONTINUE SHOW 30
TO 35 KTS OF SHEAR AT 2000 FT AGL WITHIN INCREASED
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. DID INCLUDE THIS AT ALL THE CORE
TERMINALS WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF KCHO WHERE CONFIDENCE
WAS LOWER. ANY LLWS WILL CEASE AT OR BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE TURNING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BETWEEN 7000 AND 12000 FEET.
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CIGS) ARRIVES
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SOME SOME RAIN
TO THE REGION. HI-RES CAMS AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DOWNWARD TREND HERE WITH A SYSTEM SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF
THE CORRIDOR. EVEN WITH THAT SAID, EXPECTED POCKETS OF LOW AND
MID LEVELS CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF KDCA. WINDS WILL
SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 15 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SOUTH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ON
SATURDAY, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT
NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL FLIP FROM
NORTHWEST FRIDAY TO SOUTH BY EARLY SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA AREA EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN RISING WATER LEVELS THAT
COULD PUSH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS, ESPECIALLY AT ANNAPOLIS AND
HAVRE DE GRACE. IN FACT, SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE BRINGS
ANNAPOLIS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, BUT THE BREVITY OF
FAVORABLE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING THAT OCCURS BELOW THIS
LEVEL. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT ANNAPOLIS AND
HAVRE DE GRACE FOR THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ014.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ501-505.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ534-
537-543.
DISCUSSION...EST
AVIATION...AVS/EST
MARINE...AVS/EST
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