787
FXUS61 KLWX 251926
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
226 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THIS INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE
SUBTLE CHANGES AND MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LED US TO THINKING
MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND BETWEEN
I-70 AND I-66. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS, ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BUT LITTLE HOPES IN
ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
-2) A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SET TO IMPACT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF POTENTIAL RAIN AND
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
MIX OF LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
REGION OR A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE REVEALING A TREND FURTHER TO
THE NORTH IN TERMS OF POPS FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN MADE WITH TEMPERATURES BEING LOWERED A FEW DEGREES, AS
WELL AS RAISING POPS 5 TO 10 PERCENT. THE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
COULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF US 33, WHILE IT WILL BE MAINLY
RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH EXCEPTION TO A FEW ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE IT MAY ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SET TO IMPACT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF POTENTIAL RAIN AND
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CORRESPONDING WITH A COLD FRONT SHOULD START TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, CAUSING COLDER TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE HIGH 20S-
MID 30S INDICATES A RANGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS, AND MODEL GUIDANCE
IS STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN LOCAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION.
SHOULD THIS EXPECTED TROUGH DEEPEN ANYMORE THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
SHOWING IN MODELS, A WIDESPREAD SNOW/WINTRY MIX EVENT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AFTER THIS
TROUGH INDICATES PERSISTENT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SOME TIME AFTER
THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS
SHOWING UP IN THE GFS, ECMWF, AND ICON OF A SECOND LOWER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ON HOW THESE TWO EVENTS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS AND WHAT THE EXACT EXPECTED IMPACTS WILL BE TO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR SO WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT QUICKLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM OUR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW, WE HAVE A PROB30
FOR LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MVFR OR IFR WITH THE LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN AND
REDUCE CEILINGS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINALS
CORRESPONDING TO A COLD FRONT BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS STARTING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND POTENTIALLY
LASTING INTO TUESDAY. NW SUSTAINED WINDS SO FAR ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER TWO HOURS OR SO WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL FLIP FROM NORTHWEST FRIDAY
TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE STILL A POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
STILL BORDERLINE (16-18 KNOTS), SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
BEFORE SEEING IF SCAS ARE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ534-
537-543.
DISCUSSION...KLW/EST/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/EST/SRT
MARINE...KLW/EST/SRT
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