344
FXUS61 KLWX 260238
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
938 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR HEADLINE OR FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
-2) A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SET TO IMPACT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF POTENTIAL RAIN AND
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN, AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS EVENING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS OVERNIGHT, AND
THEN TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW, BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE'S STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO JUST HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT, BUT
THE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF I-66/US-50.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF A COLD RAIN,
BUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRECIPITATION MAY START IN
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW,
WITH RAIN DEPARTING SOUTHERN MARYLAND DURING THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SET TO IMPACT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF POTENTIAL RAIN AND
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CORRESPONDING WITH A COLD FRONT SHOULD START TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, CAUSING COLDER TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE HIGH 20S-
MID 30S INDICATES A RANGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS, AND MODEL GUIDANCE
IS STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN LOCAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION.
SHOULD THIS EXPECTED TROUGH DEEPEN ANYMORE THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
SHOWING IN MODELS, A WIDESPREAD SNOW/WINTRY MIX EVENT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AFTER THIS
TROUGH INDICATES PERSISTENT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SOME TIME AFTER
THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS
SHOWING UP IN THE GFS, ECMWF, AND ICON OF A SECOND LOWER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ON HOW THESE TWO EVENTS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS AND WHAT THE EXACT EXPECTED IMPACTS WILL BE TO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER IN THE NIGHT. CEILINGS LOWER TOMORROW,
WITH MVFR TO POTENTIALLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CHO WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN FOR AT LEAST
A FEW HOURS, AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN MAKES IT FURTHER
NORTHWARD TO SOME OF THE OTHER TERMINALS. FOR NOW, A PROB30
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINALS
CORRESPONDING TO A COLD FRONT BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS STARTING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND POTENTIALLY
LASTING INTO TUESDAY. NW SUSTAINED WINDS SO FAR ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION
WILL FLIP FROM NORTHWEST FRIDAY TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE STILL A POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
STILL BORDERLINE (16-18 KNOTS), SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
BEFORE SEEING IF SCAS ARE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KJP/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/KJP/SRT
MARINE...KLW/KJP/SRT
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