721
FXUS61 KLWX 260757
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
257 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT HEADLINE OR FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN REGARDS TO TIMING, PRECIPITATION TYPE,
INTENSITY, AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY EVENING.
-2) SLIGHT WINTER STORM THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1..A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARD AND
SOUTHWEST VA EVENTUALLY OFF THE VA/NC COAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY SUPPRESSED TO AREAS EAST OF ALLEGHENIES
AND SOUTH OF I-70. HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE FROM THE NAMNEST, NSSL, ARW,
AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
LIMITING RAINFALL TO AREAS, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 AND
EAST OF I-95. THIS ALIGNS WITH THE CURRENT 00Z GFS, ECMWF, EPS,
ICON, AND UKMET WHICH THROW A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY/CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT AFTER 10AM THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN VA AND THE I-95 METROS AROUND
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (12-3PM). OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED. QPF WILL RANGE BETWEEN A
TENTH OF INCH TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 (I.E NELSON CO. & THE
IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHERN MD).
SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS ABOVE 1500 FEET AS THE PRECIP ARRIVES
THIS MORNING. A QUICK DUSTING OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
WITH LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED AS TEMPS SIT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. A
FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BURBS OF DC/BALTIMORE WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR
ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGHS PUSH BACK INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S AREAWIDE.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AT OR AROUND SUNSET.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 20S AND LOW 30S. FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-66/US-50 WHERE THE MORE NOTABLE RAINFALL WILL RESIDE. SOMETHING
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST SHIFTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SLIGHT WINTER STORM THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN FACE
OF THE APPALACHIANS DELIVERING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH WITH SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE SET TO PASS THROUGH WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL SET US UP FOR AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO AS WE GET INTO THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST RANGING FROM THE HIGH
20S-MID 30S. THIS INDICATES A RANGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN LOCAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS EXPECTED TROUGH/WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPEN ANYMORE THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN IN THE MODELS, A
WIDESPREAD SNOW/WINTRY MIX EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF THE REGION. THE QUESTIONS THAT REMAIN WILL BE WHAT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES,
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, INTENSITY, AND TIME OF YEAR (HIGHER SOLAR ANGLE
AS WE SIT IN EARLY MARCH).
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AFTER THIS TROUGH INDICATES PERSISTENT
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AFTER THIS TROUGH/WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SOME
INDICATORS SHOWING UP IN THE GFS, GEM, ECMWF, AND ICON OF A SECOND
LOWER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION (WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY)
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ON
HOW THESE TWO EVENTS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND
WHAT THE EXACT EXPECTED IMPACTS WILL BE TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z/7AM AT ALL TERMINALS
CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST VA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
KCHO/KSHD AROUND 14-16Z/9-11AM BEFORE SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
TOWARD KIAD, KDCA, KBWI, AND KMTN BETWEEN 16-19Z/11AM-2PM. WENT WITH
PROB30S OVER TEMPOS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KCHO WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FOR RAINFALL. THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 AND EAST
OF I-95 PER THE LATEST 00Z/06Z HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE. OUTSIDE OF THE
RAIN EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO MVFR TO PER IFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. RAIN WILL EXIT THE TERMINALS AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM
WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CORRIDOR. THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR 1SM OR LESS VSBYS OVER THE VA PIEDMONT AND EASTERN VA
HEADING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID, ADDED FOG IN FOR
KCHO AND DCA. CONFIDENCE WAS LOWER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD IAD/BWI
WHERE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAIN MAY BE MUCH MORE LIMITED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL SWITCH
BACK TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 15 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AS DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THE TERMINALS. NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY GUST
AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY
ON MONDAY, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE
MIDDLE/SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL FLIP
FROM NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING BACK TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY AT LESS THAN 15 KTS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY ON MONDAY. WINDS PRIMARILY REMAIN
LIGHT ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AS
WINDS GUST NEAR CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL SCA S MAY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EST
AVIATION...AVS/EST
MARINE...AVS/EST
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