892
FXUS61 KLWX 261400
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY EVENING.
-2) SLIGHT WINTER STORM THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1..A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE VA/NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARD
SOUTHWEST VA EVENTUALLY OFF THE VA/NC COAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY SUPPRESSED TO AREAS EAST OF
ALLEGHENIES AND SOUTH OF I-70. HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAMNEST, NSSL, ARW, AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE SYSTEM
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LIMITING RAINFALL TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 AND EAST OF I-95. THIS ALIGNS WITH THE
CURRENT GFS, ECMWF, EPS, ICON, AND UKMET WHICH THROW A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA AND
SOUTHERN MD LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY/CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT AFTER 10AM THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST INTO NORTHERN VA AND THE I-95 METROS THIS AFTERNOON
(12-3PM). OVERALL, PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO
FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED. QPF WILL RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH OF INCH
TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 IN VA (I.E NELSON CO. & THE
IMMEDIATE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE) AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHERN
MD. SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS ABOVE 1500 FEET. A QUICK
DUSTING OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH LIMITED
IMPACTS EXPECTED AS TEMPS SIT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BURBS OF WASHINGTON DC/BALTIMORE MD WITH
MARGINALLY COLD AIR ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
AS HIGHS PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AREAWIDE.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AT OR AROUND SUNSET.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. FOG COULD BECOME
AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 WHERE THE MORE NOTABLE RAINFALL
WILL RESIDE. IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST SHIFTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SLIGHT WINTER STORM THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY WEDGE
DOWN THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS DELIVERING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE SOUTH WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SET TO PASS
THROUGH WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR AN
OVERRUNNING SCENARIO AS WE GET INTO THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS INDICATES A RANGE OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
LOCAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS
EXPECTED TROUGH/WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPEN ANYMORE THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY SHOWN IN THE MODELS, A WIDESPREAD SNOW/WINTRY MIX
EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE REGION. THE
QUESTIONS THAT REMAIN ARE WHAT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, TRACK OF THE SYSTEM,
INTENSITY, AND IMPACTS OF THE TIME OF YEAR (HIGHER SOLAR ANGLE
AS WE SIT IN EARLY MARCH).
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AFTER THIS TROUGH INDICATES PERSISTENT
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS SHOWING UP IN THE GFS, GEM, ECMWF, AND
ICON OF A SECOND LOW OR TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
MIDWEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIAL
WINTER PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ON HOW THIS ALL
EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND WHAT THE EXACT
IMPACTS WILL BE TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST VA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO KCHO/KSHD AROUND 14-16Z/9-11AM BEFORE SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST TOWARD KIAD, KDCA, KBWI, AND KMTN BETWEEN
16-19Z/11AM-2PM. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS HIGHEST AT KCHO. THE
GENERAL FOCUS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-66/US-50 AND EAST OF I-95 PER THE LATEST HI-RES CAM
GUIDANCE. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR
TO PERHAPS IFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT LESS THAN
10KTS. RAIN WILL EXIT THE TERMINALS AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE METRO
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR 1SM OR LESS VSBYS OVER THE VA
PIEDMONT AND EASTERN VA HEADING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THAT SAID, ADDED FOG IN FOR KCHO AND KDCA. CONFIDENCE WAS LOWER
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD KIAD/KBWI WHERE MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAIN
MAY BE MUCH MORE LIMITED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL SWITCH
BACK TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 15 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AS DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THE TERMINALS. NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY GUST
AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY
ON MONDAY, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE
MIDDLE/SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL FLIP
FROM NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING BACK TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY AT LESS THAN 15 KTS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY ON MONDAY. WINDS PRIMARILY
REMAIN LIGHT ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST NEAR CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL SCAS MAY BE
NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/EST
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF/EST
MARINE...AVS/DHOF/EST
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